The conflict persists, oil prices are surging, and anger is spilling over. Without a doubt, we are in the midst of a major crisis. The harsh reality of history is that it never forewarns us which crisis will become a turning point—until we look back and realize everything was already predetermined. We cannot avoid it; we must confront it. This crisis has already impacted every one of us. From a purely personal perspective, not representing any institution, the situation is already dire. However, considering current realities and the future, we must prepare for even worse scenarios. Several dimensions warrant attention. First, we must brace for a more severe oil crisis. We are already experiencing the most serious oil crisis in decades. Upon waking on the morning of March 7, Beijing time, international oil prices had surpassed $90 per barrel. Just days earlier, before the United States and Israel initiated war against Iran, prices were below $70 per barrel. In just a few days, oil prices have skyrocketed; this is only the beginning and will certainly not stop at $90. All eyes are now on Iran, and particularly on the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow strait, less than 50 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, handles 20% of the world’s oil shipments, earning it the title of the world’s oil "lifeline" and "valve." Due to the war, this narrow passage is effectively closed. Reports vary: some claim Iran has not actually blockaded it, others say the U.S. can escort ships through, and some suggest Chinese vessels may be exempt. But until confirmed, most oil tankers dare not attempt passage. The consequences are severe. Oil-importing nations watch helplessly, while the U.S. has "specially permitted" India to continue purchasing Russian oil in transit. Oil-exporting countries face their own dilemmas; Kuwait, for example, is cutting production because it lacks sufficient storage capacity. Oil is the lifeblood of the modern economy, but when it becomes too expensive, the first to feel the pain are not the major arteries but the daily lives of ordinary people. Soaring oil prices will severely impact the real economy, affecting industries like aviation, logistics, and manufacturing, and will hit households hard. This holds true for both the U.S. and China. The upcoming U.S. midterm elections could become a nightmare for the Republican Party. Perhaps the biggest winner from rising oil prices is Russia. At $90 per barrel, current prices remain relatively moderate. Many economists warn that if the war continues, international oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel. In the worst-case scenario, prices could more than double from pre-war levels. One can only imagine the impact that would entail.

Second, we must prepare for a prolonged war. The latest moves involve two key actions. First, it has been declared that the U.S. will not engage with Iran under any terms other than "unconditional surrender"! It was previously stated that any new supreme leader of Iran must be personally approved, and the current leader’s son would not be acceptable. Such statements are staggering, as if Iran is entirely at the mercy of the U.S. But markets are rattled. Analysis suggests that the demand for Iran’s "unconditional surrender" triggered alarm, causing oil prices to surge past $90. Second, it was announced that meetings were held with major U.S. defense contractors, who agreed to quadruple production of "precision-grade" weapons. Why announce this now? Simply put, resources are stretched. The high consumption of missiles, particularly air-defense systems, in the Iran conflict has raised concerns among U.S. politicians about preparedness for potential conflicts elsewhere. The Iran war is likely to become a war of attrition, a tug-of-war, a prolonged struggle. Each side will fight on its own terms. Iran may not control the skies and could suffer significant damage, but without ground troops, the regime may not fall. Iran’s remaining missiles, especially low-cost drones, will continue to harass U.S. and Israeli forces. A prolonged war would be a tragedy for Iran, a nightmare for the U.S. and Israel, and an ominous sign for the global economy. The absurdity of war lies in making everyone believe they can win, while ensuring everyone pays the price of loss.

Third, we must prepare for significant spillover of the conflict. In fact, the fighting has already spread. Iranian missiles and drones repeatedly strike U.S. and Israeli targets across the region. Attacked U.S. assets are located in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, and other Arab nations. This has drawn many neighboring Arab countries, willingly or not, into the conflict. Moreover, as a regional power, Iran’s allies—such as Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis—have already begun operations against U.S. and Israeli interests, with others likely to join. The Israel-Lebanon border is now a active frontline, with fighting sometimes fiercer than in parts of Iran. Additionally, there have been calls for Kurdish forces to engage Iran on the ground. Without committing U.S. ground troops, tactics may involve encouraging separatist ethnic minorities, particularly Kurdish groups inside and outside Iran, to launch ground attacks with U.S. intelligence, weapons, and air support. Given past incidents, such as unprovoked attacks, it is unlikely Iran will limit its retaliation to targets around the Gulf. Over time, the conflict will expand like a vortex, pulling in more nations deeper into the fray. Hatred is a delayed-action bomb; you don’t know when it will explode, only that it remains. Warnings have been issued about the risk of "illegal" attacks in the Middle East spiraling out of control. But what constitutes "legal" versus "illegal" in such a context?

Fourth, we must prepare for increased U.S. risk-taking and impulsivity. The Middle East is a quagmire, a fact well understood yet war was still launched, surprising many Americans. This contradicts campaign promises and conflicts with stated ideals. Two factors cannot be ignored: influence from allies, and overconfidence from past successes. If this gamble in Iran succeeds, the U.S. may become more bellicose. Subsequent targets could include other nations or strategic assets. If the West could not prevent the Iran war, could it stop further expansions? If the U.S. fails in Iran, the situation becomes more complex. Policy may become more cautious, or it may double down on riskier ventures to掩盖 prior failures. A superpower without red lines or respect for rules makes the world a more dangerous place. When power tramples the rules it once set, it signals that rules are mere tools—usable by anyone. The shadow of world war has never fully vanished. Peace is not a given; it is the fragile outcome of human restraint after each crisis.

Of course, these are worse-case scenarios, and we need not be entirely pessimistic. There are also positive signs. The Middle East may gain clarity about who truly instigates war and who champions peace. Among major global powers, only one has consistently pursued peaceful development, cooperation, and avoided war for decades. The answer is clear. Europe is awakening to increasingly aggressive U.S. policies, even when allies are affected. Leadership is being questioned. Thus, despite pressure, some nations are openly refusing to support the war, even denying basing rights for airstrikes. Cohesion is weakening; leadership is challenged. The rise and fall of empires sometimes begins with a war that seemed certain to win.

But that is for the future. For now, we remain in a severe crisis that is still unfolding. We must plan ahead and prepare thoroughly. Even with soaring oil prices, we need strategies: Can our diplomacy bypass the Strait of Hormuz? Can renewable energy development cushion the oil shock? Can our manufacturing sector adapt swiftly to overcome challenges? We must maintain strong national defense and a robust economy. However long the war lasts, however far it spreads, China’s security and territorial integrity must remain inviolable. Reunification is inevitable, and China will continue to be a global pillar of peace. In every crisis lies opportunity. Strive for the best outcome, but prepare for the worst. True peace is not the absence of war, but the ability to safeguard inner tranquility and our land even when conflict rages elsewhere. The year 2026 will not be an easy one.

Finally, a tragic story. A social media post showed two coffins, one large, one small, holding a mother and her child killed in an explosion. The caption read: This mother never left her child. She brought him into this world, and now they depart together… Personal views, not representing any institution.