铁矿石逆转早盘跌势,受积极经济数据与中澳关系改善提振

华尔街洞察
15 Jul

铁矿石期货价格在周二强劲反弹,扭转了早盘跌势。这一逆转主要受中国经济数据超预期增长以及中澳关系升温推动,尽管中国房地产部门持续疲软带来压力。

具体来看,大连商品交易所(DCE)最活跃的九月铁矿石合约上涨0.13%,报每吨767元人民币;新加坡交易所(SGX)八月基准合约则下跌0.84%,至每吨98.75美元。中国经济数据表现亮眼:第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长5.2%,6月工业产出增幅达6.8%,双双超越分析师预期。

中澳关系改善成为关键支撑因素。中国国家主席习近平与澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯在会晤中承诺深化双边合作,并扩大自由贸易。阿尔巴尼斯此行携矿业巨头力拓、BHP GROUP LTD和FORTESCUE LTD高管同行,他们此前已与中国钢铁行业官员举行会谈。

ANZ分析师指出,强劲的钢铁生产、健康的钢厂利润空间以及低库存水平,共同激励钢厂补充原材料库存。然而,涨幅受到限制,因市场担忧当局可能持续调控钢铁产能。尽管增长数据积极,但潜在需求隐忧仍打压市场情绪:6月新房价格创下八个月来最大月度跌幅,房地产部门疲态未改;同期粗钢产出环比下降3.9%,同比下滑9.2%,更多钢厂因设备维护削减产量。

此外,北方高温天气与东部、南部暴雨频发,限制了户外建设活动,进一步削弱钢材需求。DCE上其他炼钢原料价格同步走低:焦煤合约下跌0.38%,焦炭合约下挫0.85%。上海期货交易所钢材品种多数收跌:螺纹钢合约下滑0.54%,热轧卷板合约微跌0.31%,线材合约重挫2.13%,仅不锈钢合约小幅上涨0.08%。

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