In the metals market at the close of day trading, domestic base metals were mostly higher. Only Shanghai aluminum closed flat at 24,170 yuan per ton, while the rest of the metals rose by more than 1%. Shanghai tin led the gains with an increase of 4.74%, followed by Shanghai zinc, which rose 2.33%. Shanghai copper gained 1.27%, Shanghai lead increased by 1.03%, and Shanghai nickel advanced 1.52%. The alumina main contract fell 0.48%, while the cast aluminum main contract rose 0.43%. Additionally, the lithium carbonate main contract dropped 1.32%, polysilicon declined 0.3%, and industrial silicon fell 1.08%. The European container freight main contract decreased by 1.61% to 3,845.

In the ferrous sector, prices were broadly higher. Stainless steel rose 2.08%, iron ore gained 0.72%, hot-rolled coil increased 0.68%, and rebar advanced 0.44%. Regarding the coking duo, coking coal fell 1.78%, while coke rose 1.21%.

In overseas markets, as of 15:03, base metals were mostly higher, with only LME aluminum recording a decline, down 0.93%. LME tin led the gains with a 2.4% increase, while the remaining metals saw gains within 1%.

In the precious metals sector, as of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 2.1% and COMEX silver gained 3.23%. Domestically, Shanghai gold surged 4.22% and Shanghai silver jumped 7.7%. The platinum main contract increased 2.14% and the palladium main contract rose 1.68%.

Key Macroeconomic Developments

On the domestic front, relevant authorities have decided to launch a three-year campaign to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, including steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. The initiative emphasizes that these sectors are major contributors to energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them critical for improving efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and cutting emissions. Starting in 2026, a three-year comprehensive energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation will be implemented across these nine industries, aiming to significantly enhance corporate energy and carbon efficiency and elevate the overall green and low-carbon development level of the sectors. From 2028 onwards, the scope may be expanded to include other industries based on practical needs, with regions encouraged to proceed in an orderly manner according to their work requirements.

The central bank conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous session. With 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 206.5 billion yuan. The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was set at 6.8088 per US dollar on June 15.

US Dollar and Federal Reserve Outlook

As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran alleviated market concerns about rising inflation, leading to reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Interest rate swaps indicate traders now see about a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike by December, down from approximately 80% last Friday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. For July, the probability of unchanged rates is 91.3%, with a 7.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 1.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut.

It is worth noting that this week, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Fed policy meeting. While no rate change is expected, Wall Street remains closely attuned to his communication style for clues on future policy direction.

Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events

Key data releases scheduled for today include Switzerland's May Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone's April seasonally adjusted trade balance, the Eurozone's April Industrial Production month-on-month, Canada's April Wholesale Sales month-on-month, the US June Empire State Manufacturing Index, US May Industrial Production month-on-month, the US June NAHB Housing Market Index, and China's May year-on-year total electricity consumption (to be determined).

Other events to watch include a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde; the National Energy Bureau's regular release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; and the opening of the G7 Summit, which runs until June 17.

Crude Oil Market Dynamics

As of 15:03, oil prices on both major exchanges declined sharply. US crude fell 5.02%, and Brent crude dropped 4.39%. The plunge followed a reported interim agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, the US President stated that the strait would reopen for mine-clearing operations as the US-Iran agreement is signed on the 19th. An Iranian deputy foreign minister also indicated an immediate and permanent cessation of military actions on multiple fronts, including Lebanon, would be announced tonight.

Reports have highlighted a growing risk signal in the international crude market as the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupts global energy supplies: inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma—the delivery point for US West Texas Intermediate crude futures and a key US oil hub—are nearing operational limits. Normally holding about 40 million barrels with a maximum capacity of 75 million, the latest data shows Cushing stocks have fallen to 21.6 million barrels, just above the widely recognized operational warning level of around 20 million barrels.