Abstract

Maximus will report fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 05, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, margins, and EPS and compares them with the prior quarter while evaluating segment momentum and institutional perspectives.

Market Forecast

For the current fiscal quarter, Maximus is forecast to deliver revenue of $1.37 billion, adjusted EBIT of $137.30 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.82, with year-over-year growth of 6.69% for revenue, 30.45% for EBIT, and 71.70% for EPS. Forecast details do not include gross profit margin or net profit margin; the company’s latest reported gross margin was 25.30% and net profit margin was 5.71%. The main business highlight centers on steady demand in U.S. Federal Services, supported by contract execution and renewal cycles that underpin revenue visibility. The most promising segment is U.S. Federal Services, which contributed $3.07 billion last quarter; segment-level year-over-year growth data was not reported, but robust pipeline and ongoing delivery suggest sustained momentum.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Maximus posted revenue of $1.32 billion, a gross profit margin of 25.30%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $75.29 million with a net profit margin of 5.71%, and adjusted EPS of $1.62, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 36.13% and revenue up 0.19% year-over-year. A notable highlight was continued profitability improvement versus the prior year as the business shifted toward higher-margin delivery and tighter cost control, though quarter-on-quarter net profit declined by 28.96%, reflecting normal seasonality and program timing. Main business revenue mix was led by U.S. Federal Services at $3.07 billion, U.S. Health and Human Services at $1.76 billion, and International Services at $0.60 billion; segment-level year-over-year growth details were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

U.S. Federal Services

Within the company’s portfolio, U.S. Federal Services remains the anchor for near-term performance and revenue stability. Contract vehicles with multi-year durations and options tend to dampen volatility while enabling incremental scope expansions as agencies adjust to policy changes and program needs. The forecasted revenue uplift to $1.37 billion and EPS of $1.82 implies healthy execution and operating leverage, with EBIT up 30.45% year-over-year, reflecting productivity gains from maturing programs and tighter labor allocation. The key swing factor is task order timing: strong delivery can pull revenue forward, but delays in awards or ramp-ups may shift recognition into subsequent quarters, influencing the quarter’s profit mix.

U.S. Health and Human Services

The U.S. Health and Human Services segment typically benefits from stable eligibility support services and call-center operations tied to Medicaid and other social programs. The prior quarter’s revenue contribution of $1.76 billion underscores its scale, though quarter-level growth depends on state-level policy execution and enrollment cycles. In the current quarter, EPS guidance implies margin lift, suggesting disciplined cost management and favorable utilization rates across customer care operations. A watch point is variability in volumes tied to re-determinations and administrative backlogs; if call volumes or case processing exceed staffed capacity, near-term margin compression could occur, while effective staffing ramps can preserve the 25.30% gross margin baseline.

International Services

International operations contributed $0.60 billion last quarter and remain a smaller but potentially expanding component of the mix. The quarter’s earnings setup points to higher EBIT and EPS year-over-year, implying operational improvements that may extend to international delivery centers through standardized processes and digital tooling. Programmatic changes abroad often entail lead times for ramp and transition, so revenue realization can be lumpy; however, the balanced portfolio approach mitigates single-market shocks. Any currency translation headwinds would have a limited impact relative to domestic segments, keeping consolidated margin dynamics aligned with the recent 25.30% gross margin and 5.71% net margin profile.

Key Factors Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

The stock’s reaction will hinge on whether revenue lands near the $1.37 billion forecast and EPS reaches $1.82, validating the implied margin efficiency embedded in the 30.45% EBIT growth trajectory. Investors will parse commentary on contract award timing and any early visibility on pipeline conversion, as these signals frame the sustainability of EPS growth into the next fiscal quarters. Management’s color on operational costs—particularly labor and subcontractor expenses—will be scrutinized for whether the prior quarter’s 25.30% gross margin can be sustained or improved. Finally, updates on new or expanded federal programs can recalibrate expectations for the balance of fiscal 2026, influencing top-line durability and the scale of operating leverage.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional notes, the dominant stance is cautiously positive, emphasizing steady federal demand and incremental margin progress, while highlighting execution dependencies around award timing and program ramps. Analysts point to the favorable setup implied by the 6.69% revenue growth and 71.70% EPS expansion estimates, arguing that operating leverage from maturing contracts could support upside if volumes normalize and costs remain controlled. The majority view expects Maximus to align with or modestly exceed revenue guidance and to deliver EPS close to $1.82, with commentary on the pipeline and renewals serving as potential catalysts for sentiment improvement.