CIDI initiated its global offering on December 11 and is expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board on December 19. The IPO is priced at HKD 263 per share, with a base offering of approximately 5.41 million shares, expandable to 6.22 million shares under the greenshoe option, translating to a total offering size of HKD 1.42–1.64 billion. Joint sponsors include CICC, CITIC Securities, and Ping An Securities. Behind the capital maneuvers, however, lurk risks such as a constrained industry niche, widening losses, imbalanced client concentration, and strained cash flow. If operational fundamentals fail to improve, market skepticism about its post-listing performance may persist.

**Cornerstone Investors Lean on Local Governments, Lack Foreign Long-Term Support** Four cornerstone investors committed HKD 550 million, accounting for 38.4% of the offering—slightly below the typical 40%+ seen in recent mid-to-large IPOs. Government-backed funds dominate: Xiangjiang Zhicheng (backed by Hunan government) invested HKD 426 million (29.9% of base offering), while Zhijia Yihao (Guangxi government-backed) contributed HKD 77.02 million (5.4%). ICBC Credit Suisse invested HKD 23.36 million via mainland and Hong Kong entities, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Qunwei added HKD 20 million. Notably, Qianhai Kaiyuan Qunwei is a specific asset management plan solely funded by Shanghai Chongshan Investment, a subsidiary of textile-focused Lianfa Group, which has minimal synergy with CIDI’s commercial-vehicle autonomous driving business (primarily serving mining).

**Niche Market Limits Competitiveness** CIDI operates in the smallest segment of autonomous commercial vehicles—closed-scenario applications like autonomous mining and unmanned ports. According to CIC, the global closed-scenario market will grow to RMB 107.5 billion by 2030 (China: RMB 56.8 billion), up from RMB 5.1 billion in 2024 (China: RMB 2.6 billion). Despite CIDI’s third-place ranking in autonomous mining trucks, it ranks sixth overall in commercial-vehicle autonomous driving with a 6.1% market share, reflecting limited competitiveness.

**Revenue Growth Fails to Offset Mounting Losses** CIDI’s revenue surged from RMB 30 million in 2022 to RMB 410 million in 2024 (CAGR: 262.7%), with H1 2025 revenue hitting RMB 408 million—nearly matching 2024’s full-year figure. However, net losses ballooned from RMB 260 million in 2022 to RMB 580 million in 2024, with H1 2025 alone recording RMB 450 million in losses (cumulative: over RMB 1.5 billion). Though the net loss ratio narrowed from 843.7% to 111.4%, profitability remains elusive despite CEO Dr. Hu Sibo’s 2024 projection of breakeven by 2025—a goal now seemingly unattainable.

**Client Concentration and Overdue Payments Strain Cash Flow** CIDI’s top five clients contributed 96.7% (2022) to 94.1% (H1 2025) of revenue, highlighting extreme concentration. Payment defaults exacerbate risks: Client K’s RMB 180 million contract led to CIDI incurring RMB 70.6 million in impairments for guarantees and loans, while Client L owes over RMB 28 million, with RMB 14.8 million overdue for 12+ months. Receivables exceeding 180 days totaled RMB 120 million by H1 2025, crippling cash conversion. Operating cash flow remained negative, with cumulative outflows of RMB 550 million (2022–2024) and a further RMB 210 million in H1 2025. With just RMB 190 million in cash by mid-2025, CIDI’s liquidity is critically strained.

**Valuation Premium Raises Correction Risks** CIDI’s post-IPO valuation of HKD 11.5–11.7 billion implies a 2024 P/S of 28.1x (20.6x trailing). Peer Boleiton, a zero-carbon mining solution provider with 10% autonomous revenue in H1 2025, trades at just 13.7x 2024 P/S (12.6x trailing), suggesting CIDI’s premium may face downward pressure.