Abstract

Brightstar Lottery PLC will report Q1 results on February 24, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to modest revenue growth and softer margins as investors focus on EPS normalization after last quarter’s outlier.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Brightstar Lottery PLC’s management and market projections indicate total revenue of $664.18 million with year-over-year growth of 0.96%, estimated EBIT of $176.63 million with a year-over-year decline of 14.80%, and estimated adjusted EPS of $0.29 with a year-over-year decline of 23.26%; detailed gross margin and net margin guidance was not provided, but last quarter’s gross profit margin was 51.19% and net profit margin was 18.60%. The company’s core Services segment remains the primary driver, while Product Sales are small but provide incremental growth and diversification. The most promising segment appears to be Services, which generated $604.00 million last quarter; the company did not provide segment-level year-over-year growth, but that contribution anchors revenue stability.

Last Quarter Review

Brightstar Lottery PLC’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $629.00 million, a gross profit margin of 51.19%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $117.00 million, a net profit margin of 18.60%, and adjusted EPS of $0.60 with year-over-year growth of 1,400.00%. A notable highlight was EBIT of $183.00 million, which exceeded the prior estimate by $16.00 million, with actual year-over-year EBIT growth of 66.36%. Main business performance was anchored by Services revenue of $604.00 million, while Product Sales contributed $25.00 million; no segment year-over-year splits were disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Services

Services remains Brightstar Lottery PLC’s revenue backbone, accounting for $604.00 million last quarter, which equates to approximately 96.03% of total revenue. The forecast for total revenue at $664.18 million suggests stable demand in core services such as lottery operations, distribution, and platform fees, even as margin headwinds are anticipated. With estimated EBIT down 14.80% year-over-year and EPS down 23.26% year-over-year, the stock’s sensitivity this quarter will hinge on whether Services can sustain volume growth and pricing discipline amid potential payout-rate variance and promotional intensity. Operating leverage in the Services model could soften the EBIT decline if ticket volumes and digital participation outpace promotions and partner commissions.

Most Promising Business: Services Platform Expansion

Although Product Sales provide diversification, the Services platform likely remains the most promising given its scale and capacity for incremental margin through user engagement, cross-sell, and digital channel expansion. The last quarter’s 51.19% gross margin reflected a healthy mix, and if the company continues to improve take rates and operational efficiency, this segment can cushion the forecast EPS contraction. Key to upside will be user acquisition efficiency, churn management, and payout volatility; a balanced risk-reward emerges if promotional spend yields measurable retention and conversion without diluting long-term margins. Given the forecast of $176.63 million EBIT, execution on cost controls within Services will be watched closely to determine whether estimated declines are conservative.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price

Earnings quality and normalization after last quarter’s unusually high adjusted EPS growth will be an immediate investor focus, particularly given the estimated year-over-year declines for EBIT and EPS this quarter. Margin trajectory will be scrutinized: last quarter’s net margin of 18.60% provides a useful benchmark, and any deviation driven by payout variability, commission expense, or promotional activity will likely move the stock. Revenue mix stability is another lever; maintaining the Services share around 96% and preserving gross margin near the 51% mark could mitigate downside risks even if EPS compresses on higher operating expense. A consensus beat on revenue with a smaller-than-feared EPS decline could be interpreted constructively, while a miss on both revenue and margins would reinforce cautious sentiment.

Analyst Opinions

Most institutional commentary gathered toward the end of the six-month window reflects cautious positivity, emphasizing revenue stability against softer profit metrics, with a roughly 60:40 skew toward constructive views. Analysts highlight that the forecast revenue growth of 0.96% indicates resilience in the company’s core operations, although the 14.80% decline in EBIT and 23.26% drop in EPS year-over-year temper expectations. Well-known sell-side voices point out that last quarter’s EBIT outperformance of $16.00 million and adjusted EPS of $0.60 establish a higher base, which complicates year-over-year comparisons this quarter.

The bullish majority stresses several potential supports. First, Services revenue at $604.00 million last quarter demonstrates scale and stability, which can underpin modest top-line growth despite macro or regulatory noise. Second, the 51.19% gross margin provides room to manage EBIT softness if cost controls and operational efficiencies hold, especially in digital channels. Third, analysts expect payout normalization from the prior quarter’s favorable variance, which could reduce volatility and align EPS with longer-term trends. Bulls also note that even a small revenue beat coupled with a gross margin near last quarter’s level could keep valuations intact, with upside if EPS compression is smaller than forecast.

In their detailed assessments, constructive analysts frame near-term execution risks—commission mix, marketing intensity, and payout variability—as manageable within the company’s established operating model. They argue that the estimated revenue of $664.18 million is achievable given steady Services demand, and that any marginal outperformance on EBIT would re-rate sentiment quickly. While bearish commentary emphasizes the forecast declines in EPS and EBIT, the majority view focuses on the durability of core Services cash flows, suggesting the quarter could affirm operational consistency rather than signal a structural setback.