The U.S. government's decision to acquire a 9.9% stake in Intel is proving to be a shrewd investment. Since the government purchased shares at $20.47 each last August, the American chipmaker's stock has surged, delivering an approximate $43 billion return.

This investment's stability has been significantly supported by White House advocacy. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has reportedly facilitated introductions for Intel to major potential clients, including NVIDIA, central to the AI revolution, and SpaceX, which aims for a leading role in AI. The latest development involves talks with Apple. Securing this flagship client would represent the most powerful endorsement yet for Intel's revival plan.

A preliminary agreement has been disclosed under which Intel's foundry business will handle some of Apple's chip needs, though the specific products involved remain unconfirmed. Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities who closely tracks Apple's supply chain, stated earlier in May that Apple has initiated using Intel's process to produce chips for "low-end/older models of iPhones, iPads, and Macs."

The two companies share a long history. Before Apple announced its shift to in-house design and TSMC manufacturing in 2020, Intel was the chip supplier for Mac computers. Analysts widely view the move to custom silicon as a cornerstone of the sustained strength of Apple's hardware business, allowing for greater efficiency in cost and performance. This vertical integration of hardware and software is a key competitive advantage for Apple.

Apple aimed to maintain this strategy, but the surging wave of artificial intelligence has disrupted the landscape. Despite its substantial resources and influence, the iPhone maker has not been immune to supply chain constraints. During an April earnings call, CEO Tim Cook highlighted that a core challenge was securing sufficient advanced manufacturing capacity for its own chips. Like memory chip makers, TSMC earns higher margins from chips for AI data centers than for smartphones, reducing Apple's priority in capacity allocation. Ming-Chi Kuo noted, "Apple still holds bargaining power and must use this time to cultivate new suppliers."

Enter Intel with its advanced manufacturing processes: first 18A, followed by the more advanced 14A. While these technologies lack consumer-friendly names like "iPhone" or "Pentium," 18A and 14A represent a critical, all-in effort for Intel. The strategy is to emulate TSMC's successful model by attracting companies like Apple and NVIDIA, which design their own chips, to use its foundry services. This marks a stark departure from the past, when Intel designed and manufactured its own chips primarily for PC makers. While that business continues, Intel has made it clear that securing major external clients is essential for its foundry business to gain solid footing.

Currently, the foundry effort faces significant challenges and slow progress. Issues include low yields—the percentage of usable chips in a production batch—and wariness from chip design companies about partnering with a competitor like Intel.

Supply chain tightness combined with political pressure has created a window of opportunity, leading companies to set aside some concerns. Bernstein semiconductor analyst Stacy Rasgon stated, "If Intel can build the chips, customers will line up. Given the current political climate, is it possible companies might place some advance orders to test the waters? It's certainly plausible."

For Apple, a 2026 partnership with Intel also offers political benefits, potentially mitigating business disruptions from political pressure to increase U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on China. However, for Intel's revival and the broader U.S. goal of chip self-sufficiency, a small order is far from sufficient. Ming-Chi Kuo points out that even with an Apple deal, TSMC "would still retain over 90% of the supply share."

Nevertheless, for Intel—once an industry leader now in recovery—the year so far has shown signs of stabilization and progress. The current geopolitical landscape is broadly favorable for its comeback path.

Apple is known for its exacting standards, having driven overseas electronics supply chains to achieve extreme quality and reliable delivery. It is now expected to play a similar role domestically. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger previously told CNBC that the 14A process would be a "major, major breakthrough" in catching up to TSMC. Whether this promise is fulfilled remains to be seen. But after years of struggle, Intel may finally be seeing a glimmer of success.