鲍威尔：中东石油冲击将推高短期通胀，但经济影响尚难估量

投资观察

6 hours ago

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，由伊朗冲突引发的石油冲击将在短期内推高美国通胀水平。"中东事件对美国经济的影响尚不确定，"他在华尔街日报直播活动中表示，"短期内，能源价格上涨将推高整体通胀。但目前判断潜在经济影响的范围和持续时间还为时过早。"

**短期通胀压力明确，长期影响存变数** 鲍威尔指出，根据标准经济学理论，评估通胀时通常需要"看穿"能源冲击的影响。但他强调，这一判断始终依赖于通胀预期保持良好锚定的前提。当前局势下，能源价格波动已开始传导至消费端，但美联储仍需观察第二轮效应是否显现。

**市场关注通胀预期锚定状况** 分析人士认为，鲍威尔的表态暗示美联储正密切关注通胀预期的稳定性。若能源价格持续上涨导致消费者和企业调整长期价格预期，可能迫使美联储在更长时间内维持紧缩政策。目前期货市场显示，投资者预计未来三个月能源成本将继续攀升，这可能使核心通胀回落速度放缓。

**政策路径仍取决于数据** 尽管承认短期通胀压力，鲍威尔未就货币政策走向给出明确指引。美联储下次议息会议将重点评估中东冲突对供应链、就业市场和消费支出的综合影响。部分经济学家预测，若油价持续高于每桶100美元，美联储可能推迟原定的降息时间表。

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