Recent adjustments in the market have already released certain risks, making holding positions during the holiday period a strategy with both a high win rate and favorable risk-reward ratio. Multiple overseas uncertainties have been concentratedly released, leading to a共振 adjustment in global risk assets. The impact of international turbulence on Chinese assets continues. Following the uncertainty in global monetary policy brought by the nomination of a new Fed Chair, additional overseas uncertainties were released this week, including geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, better-than-expected capital expenditures from US tech giants, and new tools from Anthropic disrupting traditional software industry models. These factors triggered a共振 adjustment in major global stock indices, precious metals, Bitcoin, and other risk assets.
A further breakdown of the recent structure of gains and losses in global risk assets reveals a significant characteristic of "switching from high to low." This indicates that the essence of the recent共振 adjustment in global risk assets still lies in some capital taking advantage of negative news to realize profits and digest previous floating gains. Statistics on the year-to-date performance of major global stock indices and commodities show a high negative correlation between the cumulative adjustment since January 30th and the gains since the start of the year. The A-share market also exhibits a clear "switching from high to low" characteristic in its sector structure. This means the recent adjustment in global risk assets, while superficially triggered by uncertainties in global monetary policy and the AI industry due to the new Fed Chair nomination and developments with US tech giants, is essentially a "rebalancing" of global assets and internal styles driven by some capital amplifying these narratives to realize profits amid previously overly optimistic and crowded trading conditions.
From this perspective, the recent impact of a series of overseas uncertainties on risk assets is more on the narrative and sentiment level, rather than due to substantive changes in fundamentals or policy paths. The core domestic logic supporting the spring rally—improving fundamentals, a policy "good start," and ample liquidity—remains unchanged. This is the core reason we remain optimistic that the spring rally is not yet over.
Looking ahead, as previous adjustments have released certain risks, the peak impact of recent global narrative changes on market sentiment may be gradually passing. On one hand, asset performance shows that risk assets like Bitcoin, US stocks, Chinese ADRs, and precious metals stabilized and rebounded on Friday, February 6th, indicating a gradual repair in global risk appetite. On the other hand, based on a series of sentiment indicators we track, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have adjusted to a point of attractive valuation. Specifically, our constructed Hong Kong stock sentiment index has fallen to levels seen at the December 19th low last year, dipping below the rolling one-year average minus 1.5 standard deviations, suggesting Hong Kong stocks are in a range worthy of close attention.
From the perspective of event catalysts and calendar effects, the environment is set to become increasingly favorable for equity assets. In terms of event catalysts, the upcoming week enters a window for the release of key Sino-US macroeconomic data. Domestic data on prices and social financing are expected to validate improvements in fundamentals, while US non-farm payroll and CPI data could help calibrate monetary policy expectations. Additionally,密集 catalysts at the industry level, such as developments in AI applications domestically and internationally, are likely to unfold around the Spring Festival. After recent震荡休整 with faster rotations and cooling main themes, catalysts from macro and industry levels are expected to provide guidance on market structure once again and consolidate consensus around main themes. Regarding calendar effects, after the Spring Festival, as risk appetite improves and incremental funds are released, the win rate for major indices significantly increases. Styles represented by small-cap, growth, and thematic sectors with high elasticity tend to outperform, potentially reopening upward space for the market.
In summary, the essence of the recent共振 adjustment in global assets lies more in digesting sentiment through narratives rather than substantive changes in fundamentals or policy paths. As previous adjustments have released certain risks, the peak impact of recent global narrative changes on market sentiment may be gradually passing. Increased event catalysts and the "Spring Festival effect" are expected to create a favorable environment for market recovery, making holding positions during the holiday a strategy with both a high win rate and favorable risk-reward ratio. In terms of allocation, investors can gradually move away from a defensive mindset and focus on布局 the Spring Festival rally.
How to布局 the Spring Festival rally? In terms of relative win rate, technology manufacturing, resources, and the infrastructure chain明显占优 after the Spring Festival. This is driven by, on one hand, improved risk appetite post-holiday favoring growth sectors like TMT and advanced manufacturing. On the other hand, as the post-holiday period enters the "Golden March, Silver April" spring construction peak season, coupled with政策集中落地 after the March Two Sessions, the subsequent window will be key for further enriching涨价线索, providing a boost to resources and the infrastructure chain.
Considering factors like previous performance and景气度, the following three线索 are emphasized:
TMT: With US tech stocks leading the stabilization and rebound, focus on the recovery of AI hardware (North American computing power chain, domestic semiconductor产业链), which has been significantly affected by recent overseas映射.
Advanced Manufacturing: New energy (battery storage, power grid, photovoltaics), innovative drugs, etc.
涨价链: Prioritize the recovery of sectors dominated by domestic logic, including chemicals, building materials, and steel.
Upcoming密集 catalysts at the industry level, combined with a quiet period for fundamentals and improved post-holiday risk appetite, are conducive to thematic plays. Based on trading volume percentages, most themes have experienced some cooling recently. Among them, AI applications (computers, media, humanoid robots) have密集 upcoming catalysts and currently reside at reasonable拥挤度 levels, warranting increased attention.
Risk warnings include fluctuations in economic data, policy easing falling below expectations, and the Fed's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations.