China's Major Stock Indices Experience Downward Pressure with Divergent Sector Performance

Deep News
Mar 26

China's A-share memory stocks underwent a collective adjustment. This follows a report indicating that Google's release of a KV cache compression technology led to a broad decline in U.S. memory stocks overnight, with SanDisk and Micron among the top losers. In Hong Kong, Pop Mart International Group Limited continued its significant decline. Previously, institutions including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup lowered their target prices for Pop Mart, citing performance guidance that fell below expectations, slowing overseas growth, and short-term pressures from a high base effect.

On March 26, A-shares opened lower across the board, with the three major indices declining collectively in the early session. The petrochemical sector rebounded, while memory, HBM, and other computing hardware stocks adjusted. Semiconductors and photovoltaics were among the sectors leading the losses. Hong Kong stocks also opened lower and continued to fall, with both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index declining; the latter fell nearly 1%. Technology and internet stocks generally retreated, with KUAISHOU-W plummeting over 10%. New consumer stocks continued their adjustment, with Pop Mart falling over 7%.

In the bond market, treasury bond futures saw震荡上涨. In commodities, most domestic commodity futures advanced, with the containerized freight index and crude oil among the sectors rebounding. Key market movements as of writing:

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23%.

Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.93%.

Bond market: Treasury bond futures were all higher. The 30-year main contract rose 0.06%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.05%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract was flat.

Commodities: Most domestic commodity futures rose. Chemical products led the gains, with butadiene rubber up 3.34%. All shipping futures increased, with the Containerized Freight Index (European route) up 1.75%. Energy products were mixed, with crude oil up 1.49%. Most base metals advanced, with Shanghai nickel up 1.26%. Ferrous metals were mixed, with ferrosilicon up 1.23%. All new energy materials rose, with industrial silicon up 0.69%. Precious metals led the declines, with palladium down 2.12%. All non-metallic building materials fell, with glass down 1.13%.

09:46 Pop Mart fell sharply for the second consecutive trading session, down over 7% at the time of writing.

Regarding recent developments, the latest financial report showed that for the full year 2025, the group achieved revenue of RMB 37.12 billion, a surge of 184.7% year-on-year. Net profit reached RMB 13.01 billion, an increase of 293.3% year-on-year. However, data revealed that revenue from THE MONSTERS family, centered around LABUBU, reached RMB 14.16 billion for the full year. The proportion of revenue from this single IP to the company's total revenue skyrocketed from 23% in 2024 to 38.1% (nearly 40%). Concurrently, the company failed to demonstrate timely support from a second growth curve: revenue from the veteran flagship IP Molly was only RMB 2.9 billion, below the market consensus of RMB 4.6 billion; another well-known IP, Crybaby, also fell short of expectations. Analysis institutions pointed out that the highly concentrated growth structure poses significant risks for the company if Labubu's popularity cools or counterfeit products proliferate. During the post-earnings conference, Wang Ning, Chairman and CEO of Pop Mart, stated that the company aims to achieve a growth rate of no less than 20% in 2026. Previously, institutions including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup had lowered their target prices for Pop Mart, citing performance guidance below expectations, slowing overseas growth, and short-term pressures from a high base effect. However, they also noted that after the stock price adjustment, the valuation has become somewhat attractive. Citigroup analysts, including Lydia Ling, stated that Pop Mart's full-year performance missed expectations, primarily due to a greater-than-expected slowdown in the Americas market in the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the company management's relatively cautious performance guidance, Citigroup lowered its profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2027 by 13-15%. Morgan Stanley analysts, including Dustin Wei, said in a report that Pop Mart's sales performance in the last quarter of the previous year and its 2026 guidance weakened bullish confidence, leading the firm to cut its profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by approximately 4%. Overseas growth may slow in 2026, but Morgan Stanley believes the offline-driven growth model remains effective. Jefferies analysts, including Anne Ling, noted that although the company's guidance for over 20% sales revenue growth in 2026 is below market expectations, they consider this growth rate still robust. Short-term stock price volatility may occur due to the high base effect, but the company's continuous IP investment has built a solid moat.

KUAISHOU-W slumped over 10% at the open, marking its largest intraday decline since April 7 of last year.

Regarding recent developments, the company previously released earnings and projected that this year's revenue growth would slow to 4%-4.5%. Morgan Stanley lowered its target price. Morgan Stanley analysts, including Yang Liu, pointed out in a report that Kuaishou's Kling revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 340 million, slightly below the firm's expectations. Considering the latest guidance, they lowered their earnings per share forecasts for the company for 2026-2028 by 17%-24%.

09:43 Memory concept stocks adjusted collectively, with Gigadevice, Biwin Storage, and Ingenic Semiconductor among the top decliners.

09:37 The chemical sector extended its rebound in the early session. Bohai Chemical hit its second consecutive limit-up. Sichuan Meifeng, Xin Hua Chemical, Hongbo New Material, Xinghua Chemical, and Qixiang Tengda followed with gains.

On the news front, global chemical giant BASF announced on Wednesday local time that it would increase prices for more products due to rising costs resulting from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. BASF stated it would raise prices for its basic amines product portfolio in Europe by up to 30%, with some products potentially seeing even higher increases.

09:32 The computing power leasing concept remained strong in the early session. AuroLED secured its fifth limit-up in seven days. Litong Electronics, Hongjing Technology, Philips, Hengrun Shares, and Dawei Technology followed with gains.

On the news front, Liu Liehong, head of the National Data Administration, stated that China's average daily Token calls have exceeded 140 trillion. The measurable and pricable nature of Tokens is becoming a mainstream charging method for AI, SaaS, and API services, providing companies with predictable cash flow.

09:26 The Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.17% lower, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.54%. Computing hardware themes such as memory, CPO, and advanced packaging weakened. AI computing power, semiconductors, lithium mining, and consumer electronics concept stocks were among the top decliners. Photovoltaic and satellite navigation concept saw localized strength.

09:21 The Hang Seng Index opened 0.27% lower at 25,267.16 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.68%. KUAISHOU-W fell 9.7% following its earnings release; JD.com rose 2.5%.

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