Escalating Freight Rates Push Up Crude Oil Landing Costs, Says Analyst

Deep News
1 hour ago

Heightened geopolitical tensions have resulted in an attack on Saudi Arabia's crucial East-West oil pipeline, which has a daily transport capacity of up to 7 million barrels, including 2 million barrels destined for the Yanbu refinery. The pipeline has subsequently been shut down, intensifying supply concerns in an already strained market. From March to July of this year, following a sharp drop in exports via the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia had been utilizing the East-West pipeline to ship 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day through the Yanbu port to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, in the wake of Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in late July, export volumes through that strategic chokepoint have steadily decreased, forcing some cargoes to be rerouted to the northern Suez pipeline, although its limited capacity of 800,000 barrels per day has significantly constrained total outflows from the East-West system. Even before this latest incident, the infrastructure was under pressure, and the current shutdown further exacerbates the regional supply squeeze. As a result of the attack, a planned regional meeting of Gulf states on Monday, which was intended to discuss a potential passage agreement for the strait, has been abruptly postponed, fueling a surge in market risk aversion. Freight rates for voyages from the Middle East to China have skyrocketed to $27-28 per barrel over the past two days, up from the previous range of $18-20 per barrel, and dramatically higher than the normal $1-2 per barrel for this route, substantially inflating the landing cost of crude for Chinese buyers. In terms of purchasing sentiment, buying activity in the Chinese market remains robust. It is crucial to exercise caution, however, as despite buoyant paper trading, the operating rates of major domestic refineries have been declining for two consecutive weeks, suggesting that the negative feedback loop of high prices on downstream demand is starting to materialize. Currently, international oil prices have firmly established a foothold above the $100 per barrel mark, and the SC2610 contract is approaching the 900 yuan per barrel threshold. Given the extreme geopolitical premium and high market backwardation, traders must remain highly vigilant against sharp short-term fluctuations; it is advisable to refrain from chasing rallies and to manage position sizes prudently.

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