Barclays bank economists stated in a report that following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Friday speech that paved the way for rate cuts, the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in September is high, though not guaranteed.
They noted that "the door to maintaining rates unchanged remains open," which will depend on the upcoming August employment and inflation data. Unexpectedly strong employment figures, if accompanied by inflation levels higher than anticipated, could lead the Federal Reserve to keep current rates unchanged. However, the economists emphasized that the "threshold for such a scenario is high," and inflation alone would not be sufficient to prompt the Fed to maintain rates.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) shows that U.S. money markets currently expect an 84% probability of a rate cut in September.
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