Despite rising concerns over the global economic outlook, Dorothee Blessing, co-head of global investment banking at JPMorgan, says the final months of 2026 could see a surge in M&A and IPO activity, potentially pushing full-year transaction volumes to new heights. "We genuinely believe this could be a record year, both in terms of M&A and overall capital raising activity," Blessing said in an interview on Wednesday.

According to compiled data, global transaction volumes in the first half of this year rose approximately 30% year-on-year, reaching $2.6 trillion. If the statistical scope is broadened using figures from certain institutions, this number climbs even higher to $2.8 trillion, representing a 48% increase. The current historical peak of $5.3 trillion was recorded in 2021.

Where the momentum is building

Blessing noted that "strategic M&A activity will continue to accelerate, with growth remaining the core focus of every corporate boardroom discussion." This latest wave of activity is no coincidence. The year 2025 served as a foundation-building period, with global M&A volumes reaching $5.1 trillion, a 42% increase year-on-year and the second-highest total in two decades since 2021. Among these, 71 "mega deals" exceeding $10 billion were completed, totaling $1.5 trillion in combined value—a new historical high.

Entering 2026, the momentum has further intensified: the first half alone saw 38 deals exceeding $10 billion, breaking the record for any six-month period. Goldman Sachs, in its mid-year outlook, has assessed that the current M&A cycle is only in its fourth year, suggesting "there is still ample room for upside."

Private equity re-enters the fray

Private equity activity has also returned to prominence. At the start of the year, fund exits were sluggish due to elevated valuations across most portfolio holdings and insufficient market appetite. However, Blessing indicated that some funds are now re-engaging with M&A and IPO markets once they gain confidence that deals are viable. Data shows that private equity transaction volumes and values in the first half grew nearly twofold and 86% year-on-year respectively, though overall exit activity still declined 9% year-on-year.

Exit channels show a clear divergence: M&A exits still account for 70% of the total but are losing momentum, with transaction numbers down 16% year-on-year. Meanwhile, IPO exits have rebounded significantly, rising 50% year-on-year. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects that the release of pent-up private equity exit demand could bring additional deal supply to the market in the second half of the year and beyond.

Navigating headwinds

However, skepticism persists in some corners of the market. Bearish voices point to uncertainties including the Iran conflict, rising energy prices, inflationary pressures, and trade policy concerns, questioning whether the current deal-making momentum can be sustained. Blessing, for her part, believes corporate executives are fully aware of the challenges. "In the boardroom discussions we participate in, executives are not blind to the complexity of their operating environments and business sectors," she said. "The key is how to navigate these uncertainties strategically within their agendas."