Russia-US Summit Imminent, Diplomatic Progress Boosts Global Markets

Stock News
Aug 07

The Kremlin announced Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump will hold summit talks within the coming days. Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Russia and the US have reached agreement on the meeting venue and are "working with American colleagues to advance specific agenda discussions," with the goal of holding talks next week. He also revealed that the summit location will be announced subsequently.

Following the announcement, European stocks and US stock index futures rose. The previous day, Putin held nearly three hours of talks with Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff at the Kremlin.

The core US demand driving this dialogue is to prompt Russia to end the Ukraine war - Trump has threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire by Friday regarding this four-year conflict.

After this news broke, European benchmark stock indices and US stock futures climbed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gaining 1% as of press time. UBS's Ukraine reconstruction basket index rose as much as 3.2%, with Raiffeisen Bank International shares leading gains of 11%. Goldman Sachs' European defense stocks basket index fell 4.9%.

The euro against the dollar rose to an intraday high of 1.17 before retreating slightly to fluctuate around 1.165. Other European currencies also strengthened broadly, with the Polish zloty gaining 0.6% against the dollar at one point.

Credit Agricole's head of G10 FX strategy Valentin Marinov analyzed: "The summit news provided upward momentum for the euro and other European currencies. Although details of Putin and Trump's talks remain unclear, yesterday's progress can be viewed as a positive signal - the Ukraine conflict may finally end, and a post-war recovery phase may be about to begin."

In emerging and frontier markets, Ukrainian dollar bonds continued their rally, becoming Thursday's best-performing asset class. Moscow Exchange stocks rose more than 5% overall, with sanctioned companies Gazprom, Novatek, and Aeroflot among the top gainers. The Russian ruble strengthened slightly to 79.765 against the dollar as of press time.

Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Thursday that Trump and Putin will meet in the coming days, marking the first summit between the two leaders since 2021. A White House official previously revealed that Trump could potentially meet with Putin as early as next week, though the US is still preparing to implement secondary sanctions to pressure Russia into ending the Ukraine war.

Ushakov revealed that Witkoff proposed a three-way meeting between Putin, Trump, and Ukrainian President Zelensky during their talks, but Russia did not comment on this proposal. He emphasized that Russia currently prioritizes focusing on the bilateral summit between Putin and Trump.

Trump said Wednesday it was "very likely" he would soon meet with Putin and Zelensky, attempting once again to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. The US President told allies in a phone conference earlier Wednesday that he was considering pushing for a summit, with Zelensky also participating in the call. According to multiple sources, Trump expressed optimism about ceasefire possibilities during the call.

Sources also indicated that Trump suggested Putin might be willing to initiate peace negotiations in exchange for opportunities to discuss territorial exchanges.

**International Oil Prices Stabilize**

The Kremlin's announcement that Russian President Putin will hold talks with US President Donald Trump in the coming days sparked market expectations for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine war, causing oil prices to give back some early gains.

Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $67.3 per barrel, while US WTI crude gained 0.6% to $64.7 per barrel as of press time.

On Wednesday, influenced by Trump's remarks about "making progress in negotiations with Moscow," market doubts about whether the US would impose further sanctions on Russia caused both major crude benchmarks to fall about 1%, touching eight-week lows.

UBS analyst Giovanni Stonovo noted that oil prices' modest gains benefited from declining US crude inventories, Saudi Arabia's price increases for Asian crude sales, and China's steady July crude import performance, but news of Trump and Putin's potential meeting next week limited the gains.

Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer, behind only the US. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that US crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels for the week ending August 1, exceeding the 591,000-barrel decline expected in a Reuters analyst survey.

In China, July crude imports fell 5.4% month-over-month but still increased 11.5% year-over-year. Analysts expect Chinese refining activity to remain robust in the short term.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced Wednesday it would raise September crude prices for Asian buyers, marking the second consecutive monthly increase driven mainly by tight supply and strong demand.

However, global macroeconomic uncertainties limited oil price gains. The US has ordered new tariffs on Indian goods - Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods Wednesday, citing India's continued imports of Russian oil, with new tariffs taking effect August 28.

Additionally, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tareq Rumi said Thursday that OPEC is closely monitoring global oil supply and demand trends as well as US President Trump's recent statements regarding Russian oil.

"Through OPEC mechanisms, we are monitoring market supply and demand conditions while also watching the US President's related statements," Rumi told reporters, adding that he expects oil prices to remain below $72 per barrel.

The minister described current market conditions as healthy, with demand growing at a moderate pace.

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