Abstract

Occidental Petroleum Corporation will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026, Post Market. This preview synthesizes the company’s latest quarterly guidance and Street forecasts, last-quarter performance, main segment drivers, and consensus views to frame expectations for headline revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus compiled from the latest model set indicates Occidental Petroleum Corporation revenue is forecast at $5.62 billion for the current quarter, with year-over-year contraction of 20.38%, EPS at $0.18 with year-over-year contraction of 73.65%, and EBIT at $700.35 million with year-over-year contraction of 51.64%. The company’s margin mix is expected to be pressured alongside softer upstream realizations and the downstream blend, implying cautious gross and net margin trends versus last year. Occidental’s core “Oil and Gas” business remains the principal revenue engine with scale and capital intensity supporting production stability; the outlook centers on commodity realizations and disciplined capex. The most promising adjacent growth lever is the Chemicals segment, whose diversified end-markets can absorb commodity volatility; last quarter revenue was $1.17 billion, and its trajectory will hinge on demand recovery in PVC and caustic soda and pricing normalization.

Last Quarter Review

Occidental Petroleum Corporation posted prior-quarter revenue of $6.72 billion, gross profit margin of 63.74%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $854.00 million, net profit margin of 12.89%, and adjusted EPS of $0.64 with year-over-year contraction of 36.00%. Net profit rose 72.18% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting tighter cost discipline and supportive realizations versus the preceding quarter. Main business highlights: Oil and Gas delivered $5.38 billion and maintained the largest share of the revenue base; Chemicals contributed $1.17 billion and Midstream and Marketing delivered $401.00 million, together reinforcing cash generation and integration.

Current Quarter Outlook

Oil and Gas

The upstream portfolio drives Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s overall earnings power, and this quarter the key variables are liquids realizations, production mix, and operating costs. With the forecast revenue down 20.38% year over year and EPS down 73.65%, the models imply materially lower realized prices and/or the absence of non-recurring tailwinds that benefited last year’s comparable period. Investors should watch the trajectory of Permian oil volumes, base decline rates, and workover activity, since small changes in liquids mix can disproportionately affect margin capture. The company’s prior-quarter gross margin of 63.74% highlights strong upstream margin structure when realizations cooperate; however, the forecast EBIT decline of 51.64% year over year suggests cost inflation and pricing headwinds outweigh productivity gains this quarter, making operating cost per barrel and lease operating expense trends central to the narrative.

Occidental’s net profit margin was 12.89% last quarter, benefiting from integrated operations and relatively efficient lifting costs. For the current quarter, the revenue contraction and EPS compression imply a leaner net margin profile, potentially exacerbated if natural gas realizations lag and if NGL differentials widen. Completion schedules and capital timing may further affect reported volumes; any deferrals can shift barrels into subsequent periods. The earnings call will likely emphasize capital discipline, with management balancing shareholder returns against organic growth and the asset retirement obligations associated with mature fields.

Commodity price volatility is the swing factor. A mid-quarter pullback in spot crude or widening differentials would translate quickly into realized prices, dampening EBIT. Conversely, a supportive macro backdrop—if Brent and WTI hold firm and domestic basis tightens—could cushion the downside. Hedging posture, if any, may also moderate earnings variability; absent robust hedges, Occidental will remain sensitive to short-term price movements.

Chemicals

The Chemicals segment, which reported $1.17 billion last quarter, is a meaningful diversifier with exposure to PVC, chlor-alkali, and related value chains. Segment profitability typically hinges on pricing for caustic soda and chlorine derivatives, end-market demand in construction and industrial applications, and feedstock dynamics. Recent demand oscillations have limited pricing power broadly in commodity chemicals, but a gradual stabilization can support margin contribution even in a softer upstream quarter. The segment’s structural cash generation complements upstream cyclicality, and management has historically used this arm to buffer consolidated cash flows.

For this quarter, investors will focus on capacity utilization and price indices across key chemicals products. Any signs of recovering construction activity or improved export demand could help volumes and margins sequentially, even if year-over-year comps remain challenging. Operational reliability and maintenance schedules are critical, as unplanned downtime would have outsized impact on earnings in a quarter already facing upstream headwinds. If caustic soda prices exhibit firmness and PVC spreads stabilize, segment EBIT contribution could surprise to the upside relative to cautious Street modeling.

Sustainability investments and process efficiency initiatives will likely feature in management commentary. Incremental energy efficiency gains may lower unit costs, while procurement optimization for feedstocks can mitigate input volatility. Taken together, Chemicals can serve as the incremental offset to upstream softness, particularly if downstream spreads widen modestly.

Midstream and Marketing

Midstream and Marketing delivered $401.00 million last quarter and plays a tactical role in Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s integrated model, smoothing realizations and supporting logistics. This segment’s quarter-to-quarter performance often reflects marketing margins, transportation costs, and commodity differentials. In an environment of weaker year-over-year upstream pricing, midstream performance can help narrow basis impacts, but its scale limits the degree of consolidated earnings protection.

For the current quarter, differentials in the Permian and Gulf Coast will be watched closely. Improved takeaway capacity and disciplined marketing strategies could enhance blended realizations, while congestion or elevated transportation rates could compress marketing margins. Storage utilization and optimization strategies can improve profitability if contango structures present profitable carry opportunities; however, if markets remain flat or backwardated, such strategies may offer limited benefit.

While not the primary growth engine, the segment can provide a stabilizing influence. Efficient scheduling, favorable contract terms, and selective arbitrage can modestly lift consolidated EBIT, especially when upstream margins are under pressure. Stakeholders should pay attention to commentary on pipeline tariffs and any updates on midstream infrastructure that could influence long-term basis dynamics.

Key Stock Price Drivers

The primary swing factor is commodity price trajectory across oil, NGLs, and natural gas, which feeds directly into realized prices, margins, and cash flow. Model-implied EPS compression suggests the market expects less favorable pricing and possibly lower liquids mix relative to last year, sharpening sensitivity to WTI and Brent benchmarks. A secondary driver is cost control: if lease operating expenses, transportation, and maintenance costs are contained, Occidental could defend margins better than consensus assumes. The third driver is capital allocation—buyback activity and dividends—relative to free cash flow generation; if cash flows undershoot forecasts, the company may temper shareholder return programs temporarily.

Operational execution also matters. Any guidance revisions on production volumes or capex timing will shape sentiment. The extent to which Chemicals and Midstream can offset upstream pressure will influence investors’ perception of earnings durability. Finally, balance sheet signals—debt management and refinancing terms—could sway equity valuation, particularly if interest expense trends intersect with EBIT headwinds.

Analyst Opinions

Across the latest previews gathered within the permitted window, the majority stance is cautious, reflecting expected year-over-year declines in headline revenue and EPS for the quarter. Forecasts coalesce around $5.62 billion in revenue, $0.18 EPS, and $700.35 million EBIT, with decline rates of 20.38%, 73.65%, and 51.64% respectively, suggesting analysts anticipate margin compression and softer realizations versus last year’s comparable period. Commentary from sell-side desks points to upstream price sensitivity as the core risk, with potential offsets from Chemicals if pricing for caustic soda stabilizes and PVC demand shows signs of recovery in early 2026.

Institutional previews highlight that last quarter’s adjusted EPS of $0.64 and strong gross margin imply operational resilience, yet the sequential setup now looks more challenging as realized prices normalized and year-end tailwinds faded. Several desks emphasize monitoring WTI basis in the Permian and export spreads on the Gulf Coast; tighter differentials could support a modest beat case, but the baseline remains for contraction versus last year’s quarter. In this framework, cautious views outweigh bullish calls: the consensus narrative expects Occidental to deliver credible operational execution while absorbing commodity-driven pressure on revenue and earnings, with Chemicals and Midstream acting as stabilizers rather than growth engines this period.

Taken together, market expectations are anchored to a pragmatic downside-tilted base case—conservative margins, disciplined costs, and measured capital returns—while leaving optionality for upside if commodity realizations hold firmer than modeled or if downstream spreads improve faster than anticipated.