Last week, gold markets attempted a weak rebound, with the Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady and a lower-than-expected PCE reading easing some tightening concerns. However, the fluctuating situation in the Middle East disrupted the recovery path.
Gold experienced a fragile rebound, trading in a narrow range around $4,050. Buying on dips and softer inflation data helped the metal hold the $4,000 support level. Nonetheless, the Fed's hawkish stance, rising US Treasury yields, and increasing inflation worries fueled by the oil price rebound continued to limit gold's upside. The Fed's July meeting, which kept rates unchanged, was more stable than markets had anticipated, helping to correct the overpricing of tightening. However, the press conference questioned the credibility of Chair Walsh, as he simply emphasized "monitoring and responding" to inflation without providing a clear "reaction function." Consequently, the recent rapid oil price rebound has made it difficult to ease market concerns about the inflation outlook, leading to a broad rise in the yield curve — a significant factor weighing on the gold market. Gold has been unresponsive to recent weaker-than-expected economic data, including CPI, PCE, and GDP, which have repeatedly reduced the market's expectation of tightening. Furthermore, the actual tone of the July FOMC statement was not particularly hawkish, yet gold still struggled to attract capital inflows. Both European and US gold ETFs as well as COMEX gold positions have stagnated over the past month. The recent joint intervention in the FX market by the US and Japan, which weakened the dollar, also failed to push gold out of its trading range. All of this suggests that the gold market's bottoming process may require an extended period.
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In terms of last week's market dynamics, US Q2 real GDP came in weaker than expected. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in Q2, below the market expectation of 2.1%. However, domestic demand remained robust, with household consumption of goods and services both stronger than in Q1. Investment in equipment, particularly in communications and industrial equipment, also rebounded. The main drags on the economy were net exports, inventories, and government consumption and investment. The Fed's July FOMC meeting held steady, with the statement largely unchanged from June. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented, marking a historically high number of dissenting votes, all from regional bank presidents. This internal disagreement highlights that Chair Walsh still needs to solidify his leadership over the regional banks. US June PCE inflation fell. The Commerce Department reported that the PCE price index declined by 0.1% month-on-month due to lower energy prices, marking the first decline in six years. This brought the 12-month PCE inflation rate to 3.7%, down from 4.1% in May. After stripping out volatile food and energy, the core PCE price index rose 0.1% month-on-month, with the 12-month core PCE inflation rate at 3.3%, slightly below May's 3.4%.
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Risk warning: Gold prices have been highly volatile recently. Investors in gold funds should fully understand the risks and make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. They should also continuously monitor global macroeconomic trends, global central bank gold purchases, and related policy dynamics. Disclaimer: This report is based on publicly available information, and the company makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Under no circumstances does the information or opinions in this report constitute actual investment results or provide investment advice to investors. Unless otherwise noted, data sources are from Wind. The copyright of this report is owned by Boshi Fund Management Co., Ltd. Investment involves risk, so choose carefully. Disclaimer: This material does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities or provide investment decision advice. The information is not intended as specific, personalized investment advice. Investors should evaluate this information independently and make their own decisions at their own risk. We make no express or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, timeliness, or completeness of the material. The information is as of the date of publication and is subject to change. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution for commercial purposes by third parties is prohibited. MACD golden cross signal forms, these stocks are performing well!