GUOXIA TECH initiated its global offering on December 8, 2025, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board by December 16. The IPO is priced at HKD 20.1 per share, with a base offering of 33.85 million shares, raising HKD 680 million. The deal includes a greenshoe option and an over-allotment option, which could expand the total fundraising to HKD 900 million if fully exercised. However, concerns loom over the company's valuation surge, declining core business pricing, and deteriorating profitability metrics. High customer concentration and mounting receivables further exacerbate cash flow pressures.
Despite the modest HKD 680 million offering size, GUOXIA TECH enlisted 18 underwriters—a sign of lukewarm institutional interest during pre-IPO roadshows. Notably, lead underwriter Livermore has a track record of IPOs marked by weak institutional demand but high retail participation, often resulting in first-day slumps (e.g., Haiwei Shares -23%, Tianyu Semiconductor -30%). The cornerstone investor lineup—comprising Huikai Hong Kong, Junyi Capital, and Wusong Capital—committed just HKD 74.25 million (10.9% of base offering), well below the typical 40%+ seen in recent Hong Kong IPOs. These investors lack strong market credibility, with Junyi’s past three cornerstone bets all ending in post-listing losses.
GUOXIA TECH’s valuation has skyrocketed 300x since 2019, reaching RMB 6 billion in April 2025. The IPO now values the company at HKD 10.2–10.4 billion (up 55% from April), implying frothy multiples: 227x 2024 P/E, 139x trailing P/E, and 10.9x 2024 P/S. Regulatory scrutiny arose after its valuation quadrupled in one month (March–April 2025).
Revenue grew rapidly from RMB 142 million (2022) to RMB 691 million (H1 2025), but 92.3% relies on two declining-margin segments: large-scale (74.2% of revenue) and residential (18.1%) energy storage systems. Average selling prices plunged to RMB 0.4/Wh (large) and RMB 0.6/Wh (residential) in H1 2025, dragging gross margins down from 25.1% (2022) to 12.5% (H1 2025). Net margins collapsed to 0.8% in H1 2025, risking losses if competition intensifies.
Cash reserves dwindled to RMB 56.1 million by mid-2025, with operating cash flow negative in three of the past four periods (-RMB 200 million in H1 2025). Over 64% of H1 revenue (RMB 9.5 billion in receivables) remains uncollected, as days sales outstanding ballooned to 181.8 days. Top-five clients contributed 77.7% of H1 revenue, highlighting acute concentration risks.