Abstract
Nutrien Ltd. is scheduled to report quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to modest year-over-year revenue growth and a sharp rebound in profitability, while recent institutional commentary highlights improving fertilizer price dynamics and supportive agricultural fundamentals through the period.Market Forecast
For the current quarter, market forecasts imply revenue of $5.31 billion, adjusted EPS around $0.98, and EBIT of $0.75 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 3.67% for revenue, 176.64% for EPS, and 88.51% for EBIT; margin guidance has not been formally indicated, but the backdrop points to favorably mixed pricing and volumes. Nutrien Ltd.’s core operations are set to be driven by its retail distribution and services franchise, with analysts noting sustained demand across crop inputs and pricing support in nitrogen and potash through the quarter. The most promising segment remains potash, which generated $1.26 billion last quarter and is expected to benefit from constructive pricing and active contracting, supported by the company’s consolidated revenue growth forecast of 3.67% year over year.Last Quarter Review
Nutrien Ltd. posted last quarter revenue of $5.74 billion, a gross profit margin of 34.25%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.46 billion, a net profit margin of 8.09%, and adjusted EPS of $0.97, with year-over-year increases of 12.78% for revenue and 148.72% for adjusted EPS. On a sequential basis, net profit contracted by -62%, reflecting quarter-specific pricing and cost movements against a strong prior period, while EBIT still rose 97.57% year over year, underscoring a significant profitability rebound versus the prior-year quarter. Main business contributions were anchored by the retail segment ($3.43 billion), potash ($1.26 billion), nitrogen ($1.20 billion), and phosphate ($0.56 billion), while total company revenue advanced 12.78% year over year.Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Retail Distribution and Services
The retail business, which distributes crop nutrients and supports growers across planning and application cycles, continues to underpin Nutrien Ltd.’s revenue base and cash generation this quarter. Last quarter revenue of $3.43 billion reflected solid demand and the breadth of offerings across fertilizers, crop protection, and agronomic services, and similar forces are likely to sustain activity into the current period. The key sensitivities for retail include in-season timing, local agronomic conditions, and farmer purchasing behavior around price moves and working capital, all of which appear constructive given favorable crop price realizations and higher planted-area intentions cited by analysts. Retail margins can be influenced by product mix, inventory cycling, and service intensity; if nitrogen and potash prices are firming, retail may capture incremental gross margin through disciplined pricing and timely procurement. In this setup, retail’s scale and customer proximity should allow Nutrien Ltd. to adjust pricing and stocking plans dynamically, mitigating volatility and sustaining contribution even where input prices fluctuate intra-quarter.Most Promising Business: Potash
Potash is positioned as the most promising driver this quarter given active contracting and supportive price signals cited by coverage analysts, following a muted patch in late 2025 and a subsequent pickup in demand. With last quarter revenue at $1.26 billion, the segment’s performance this quarter will hinge on the pace of contract signings and spot realizations in key export markets, supported by stable downstream demand in intensive cropping regions. Commentary from institutional analysts points to a constructive supply-demand balance, with availability disciplined and pricing supported by competitive cost positions; in such an environment, Nutrien Ltd. can prioritize higher-margin sales channels while protecting volume where essential. Execution around production, logistics, and customer mix should matter; maintaining strong deliveries and managing freight costs can protect segment contribution even if price improvements are moderate. The company’s focus on operational enhancements and capital efficiency mentioned by analysts aligns with sustaining potash margin resilience, helping translate favorable market dynamics into tangible earnings leverage.Other Key Driver: Nitrogen Profitability and Feedstock Costs
Nitrogen profitability remains a key lever for quarterly variation given its sensitivity to ammonia/urea pricing and natural gas feedstock costs. Last quarter nitrogen revenue of $1.20 billion was supported by broad-based demand and firmer prices, and analysts indicate that the quarter under review witnessed robust nitrogen markets across products. Margin outcomes will depend on realized prices versus production costs; if feedstock costs are manageable and pricing stays constructive, nitrogen should contribute meaningfully to EBIT and help stabilize consolidated margins. Any localized disruptions or shipping constraints could alter regional spreads, but Nutrien Ltd.’s integrated footprint should allow it to optimize production allocation and sales channels for margin preservation. A balanced approach to supply, inventory management, and contract terms will be pivotal in capturing the improved pricing environment while maintaining customer commitments through application windows.Stock Price Sensitivities This Quarter
Share performance this quarter is most sensitive to realized fertilizer prices, volume trajectory across retail, nitrogen, and potash, and visibility on margin cadence. Earnings clarity around the pace of potash contracting and any commentary on pricing into early 2026 could influence investor expectations for the full-year run rate and valuation multiples. Consolidated margin messaging—whether through EBIT progression or commentary on gross and net profit margin trends—will likely have an outsized effect, especially given last quarter’s -62% sequential net profit change. Analysts’ upgraded price targets and ratings point to a constructive read-through on operational execution; confirmation of those expectations via revenue mix, cost control, and capital efficiency would be supportive for the stock. Finally, capital allocation updates regarding non-core assets and the balance between investment and shareholder returns could help frame the multi-quarter profitability narrative and investor sentiment.Analyst Opinions
The majority view is bullish, with recent Buy and Overweight calls outnumbering bearish views; among the institutions commenting this year, several have articulated constructive earnings and pricing trajectories while no major bearish calls were noted. One prominent institution highlighted that agricultural fundamentals through the last quarter were well-supported by solid crop prices and yields, emphasizing active potash markets and robust nitrogen demand with higher prices; this view supports expectations for steady operations and a constructive market environment into 2026. Another leading bank upgraded Nutrien Ltd. to Overweight and lifted its price target to $77, citing improving fertilizer pricing dynamics and greater confidence in earnings execution, which aligns with the quarter’s forecast for sharp year-over-year EPS and EBIT growth. Additional bullish commentary came from major coverage with Buy ratings and targets in the mid-$60s to mid-$70s, emphasizing a positive outlook on operational enhancements around cost and capital efficiency and a re-rating opportunity if the company sustains delivery against its plan.When consolidating these opinions, the bullish-to-bearish ratio effectively skews to bullish, with Buy/Overweight calls forming the majority versus neutral Hold views and an absence of Sell/Underperform calls in the recent window. Analysts’ positive stance broadly rests on three pillars relevant to this quarter: the improving pricing environment in potash and nitrogen, steady demand across the retail network, and signs of disciplined execution aimed at elevating margin consistency. The quarter’s forecasted EPS growth of 176.64% and EBIT growth of 88.51% year over year provide quantitative anchors for that optimism; meeting or modestly exceeding those markers could reinforce confidence in forward estimates and support valuation resilience. In their commentary, institutions also pointed to focus areas such as non-core asset actions and capital efficiency, which, if advanced, would enhance return metrics and potentially widen the gap between Nutrien Ltd.’s operating momentum and peer averages. Overall, the prevailing analyst narrative anticipates that this quarter will crystallize the early stages of a profitability recovery, supported by constructive pricing and active markets, with execution milestones and margin cadence guiding the next moves for the shares through the first half of 2026.