October 9th - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector is attracting massive investments, with investor expectations for technological breakthroughs driving capital inflows. OpenAI, as the world's most renowned AI company, sees its CEO Sam Altman not only responsible for advancing technology development but also tasked with ensuring sustained investor attention and capital commitment. Against this backdrop, investors should note that breakthrough promises often come with adjustments and delays to maintain market enthusiasm and capital liquidity. CWG Markets forex analysis suggests this phenomenon cannot be overlooked in investment logic.
Despite OpenAI's latest valuation reaching $500 billion, the company remains unprofitable. Reports indicate that last year, OpenAI posted losses of approximately $5 billion against sales revenue of $3.7 billion. Altman claimed in 2023 that the company had achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - an intelligent system capable of performing all human tasks. However, such claims lack clear measurement standards and appear more like market strategies to motivate investors rather than actual verifiable technological achievements. In reality, even if AGI eventually emerges, its comprehensive impact on employment and the economy remains highly uncertain. CWG Markets forex reminds investors that the gap between such high valuations and actual results warrants caution.
The timeline for achieving AGI has been consistently variable. Altman initially projected AGI realization by 2025 but has now pushed the target to 2030, while industry predictions range from 2026 to 2060. Current AI technology, which relies on Large Language Models (LLMs), is unlikely to achieve true general intelligence in the near term. While current AI can provide practical value in specific scenarios, it falls far short of replacing comprehensive human capabilities.
The limitations of large language models lie in the ambiguity and contextual dependency inherent in language itself. Machines cannot establish judgment capabilities through personal experience, nor can they create complex models like authors who guide readers to imagine worlds through literary works. Furthermore, code language itself is more restrictive than natural language, creating fundamental obstacles for AI in understanding and simulating reality. AI can provide information but cannot truly convey understanding - its output is merely a "partial map" of reality, not a complete reproduction.
In professional fields, AI similarly cannot replace human experts. Knowledge exists not only in written materials but also in practical experience, intuitive judgment, and skills accumulated over time. For example, while lawyers use AI assistance in drafting contracts, human correction and adjustment remain necessary to ensure accuracy and feasibility. AI has value in assisting expert work, but risks exist when non-professionals rely entirely on AI.
Investor optimism regarding AGI may create bubble risks. Once the market realizes that technological progress falls short of expectations, AI concept stocks and related economic sectors may face corrections. As CWG Markets forex analysis indicates, "trees don't grow to the sky," and financial markets are no exception. Even if underlying companies possess value, their actual contributions still require rational assessment. Investors should focus on the balance between technological implementation and economic value, avoiding blind trend-following.