Abstract

Carvana Co. will announce quarterly results on February 18, 2026, Post Market, with consensus pointing to strong year-over-year revenue growth and a sharp acceleration in adjusted EPS momentum supported by operational scaling and a richer product mix.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Carvana Co.’s current quarter centers on total revenue of $5.25 billion, up 58.50% year over year, adjusted EPS of $1.09, up 279.53% year over year, and EBIT of $424.27 million, up 109.01% year over year; margin guidance has not been formally indicated, so gross profit and net margins are tracked against last quarter’s baselines. Forecast data shows robust momentum in earnings versus the prior year, while revenue growth remains in the high-50% range, reflecting continued throughput gains across reconditioning and logistics alongside disciplined customer acquisition.

The main business—used vehicle retail—is expected to carry the quarter’s top-line, supported by inventory capacity and delivery convenience improvements, with a focus on unit economics and conversion efficiency. The segment with the strongest growth potential is financing and ancillary services within “Other,” which delivered $474.00 million last quarter and benefits from higher attach rates and margin accretion driven by add-on products—while company-level revenue is projected to rise 58.50% year over year, strengthening the backdrop for this higher-margin contribution.

Last Quarter Review

Carvana Co. reported last quarter revenue of $5.65 billion (up 54.50% year over year), a gross profit margin of 20.33%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $151.00 million, a net profit margin of 2.67%, and adjusted EPS of $1.03 (up 60.94% year over year), while net profit declined 17.49% quarter on quarter. One notable highlight was a top-line beat, with revenue exceeding consensus by $0.57 billion, reflecting stronger-than-modeled unit volumes and a healthy pricing/mix backdrop that offset pockets of rate sensitivity.

Within the main business, used vehicle retail generated $4.00 billion last quarter (70.76% of total revenue), underscoring the core scale advantage in online purchase, reconditioning, and delivery; total revenue rose 54.50% year over year, highlighting demand resilience alongside throughput improvements in operations and customer experience.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Used Vehicle Retail

Used vehicle retail remains the central driver of Carvana Co.’s quarterly performance, with the current forecast anchored by $5.25 billion in total revenue and a significant year-over-year EPS uplift. Unit volumes should be supported by improved inventory breadth and more reliable delivery windows, which have become a differentiating feature of the platform experience. Operational capacity at reconditioning centers and logistical nodes continues to translate into faster cycle times, bolstering conversion and customer satisfaction, while maintaining discipline on marketing efficiency.

Pricing and mix are key variables this quarter. A wider range of vehicles, balanced across price points and mileage bands, helps mitigate consumer sensitivity to monthly payments, which are influenced by financing rates and credit appetite. Management’s focus on margins suggests emphasis on gross profit per unit through tighter acquisition channels and reconditioning yield. While formal gross or net margin guidance has not been issued, last quarter’s gross margin of 20.33% and net margin of 2.67% provide reference points; sustaining similar levels alongside a rapid EPS expansion would signal solid execution on unit economics.

Channel enhancements are also part of the outlook. The platform’s ability to offer convenience—such as same-day delivery in select geographies—improves funnel conversion and reduces abandonment. This supports revenue quality by expanding the addressable base without materially increasing marketing cost per acquisition. The mix of vehicles, efficiency in inventory balancing, and the speed from purchase to delivery are expected to be central proof points investors look for as they evaluate whether the company can maintain high-50% year-over-year revenue growth alongside triple-digit EPS growth.

Most Promising Segment: Financing and Ancillary Services

Financing and ancillary services, categorized in “Other,” contributed $474.00 million last quarter and continue to represent a compelling margin lever. The attractiveness of this segment stems from the ability to bundle extended warranties, service plans, and financing options directly into the online purchase journey, thereby enhancing per-order economics without significantly increasing fixed costs. Higher attach rates in these products typically improve gross profitability per transaction and diversify revenue streams beyond one-off vehicle sales.

This quarter’s strong company-level revenue growth projection (58.50% year over year) creates a supportive context for this segment to deepen its contribution. As conversion improves and the platform scales, the penetration of financing and add-ons often follows, given better targeting and more refined product presentation during checkout. The emphasis remains on responsible underwriting, transparent pricing, and product positioning that aligns with customer value perception, which helps sustain both customer satisfaction and profitability.

The segment’s promise is also tied to operational reliability and product breadth. A seamless financing process reduces friction and improves the likelihood of closing transactions, while incremental services create a differentiated ownership experience. With EPS expected to rise 279.53% year over year and EBIT forecast to grow 109.01% year over year, investors will be watching whether these higher-margin contributions incrementally lift overall profitability and demonstrate tangible scalability in the business model beyond vehicle unit growth.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings trajectory is central to the stock’s performance in the near term. Consensus calls for adjusted EPS of $1.09, up 279.53% year over year, and EBIT of $424.27 million, up 109.01% year over year, which sets a high bar but also signals a meaningful transformation in operating leverage. Delivery on EPS hinges on gross profit per unit, acquisition and reconditioning efficiency, and the spread between retail pricing and input costs; these components collectively determine margin durability and influence investors’ confidence in the sustainability of earnings power.

Top-line execution remains crucial at $5.25 billion, up 58.50% year over year, and the mix between retail, wholesale, and other services will be scrutinized for balance and unit economics. Wholesale auto sales provide liquidity and inventory optimization benefits, but retail unit margins and add-on services create more attractive profitability profiles. The market will watch how management balances volume growth with profitability, especially in the context of consumer affordability and financing conditions.

Qualitative drivers also matter. Operational updates—such as expanding same-day delivery in new regions—signal continued progress in customer convenience and logistics, which may amplify demand and improve retention. Analyst sentiment, including repeated Buy or Overweight ratings and upward revisions in price targets from well-known institutions, sets a supportive tone for valuation and narrative. This backdrop, combined with delivery against revenue and EPS forecasts, is likely to be the main determinant of near-term stock moves as investors re-rate the company’s earnings profile.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate recent commentary on Carvana Co., with Buy or Overweight ratings substantially outnumbering neutral stances by a wide margin. Multiple reputable institutions have reiterated positive opinions and, in several cases, raised price targets during the observed period. JPMorgan recently maintained an Overweight view while lifting its price target to $510, noting momentum in execution and confidence in earnings scalability. Wells Fargo reiterated an Overweight rating and increased its price target to $525, citing strategic progress and operational scaling that supports top-line acceleration and a stronger margin framework. Barclays maintained Overweight and raised its target to $530, highlighting improved throughput and a richer revenue mix that better monetizes customer engagement.

Citi reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $445 target, acknowledging consistent improvements in operational efficiency and customer experience. Needham kept a Buy rating with a $500 target, emphasizing resilience and growth potential despite broader market concerns. Morgan Stanley reiterated a Buy stance with a $450 target and pointed to the company’s competitive advantages within its model, including data-driven scaling and cost discipline that underpins earnings momentum. Deutsche Bank resumed coverage with a Buy rating and a $395 target, framing the company as a leading player with the infrastructure to compound growth and margin gains over time. William Blair repeatedly underscored a constructive outlook, reiterating its Buy view based on technology-driven scale and cumulative operational advantages.

Against this backdrop, neutral commentary from Evercore ISI (Hold) remained a minority, signaling a degree of caution on valuation and the need for continued execution to justify higher multiples, but not detracting from the overall prevailing optimism among the majority of covering firms. Based on the above, bullish opinions make up the clear majority of recent views, supported by strengthening earnings expectations—EPS up 279.53% year over year and revenue up 58.50% year over year in the current-quarter forecast—and affirmed by repeated price target increases among major institutions.

The core of the bullish thesis rests on three pillars for the upcoming report: first, revenue consistency and scale, with consensus at $5.25 billion and continued evidence of robust demand conversion; second, earnings leverage driven by operational efficiencies and the mix benefits of financing and ancillary services; and third, improving customer experience indicators, such as expanded same-day delivery, that fortify long-term engagement and lower abandonment. The majority viewpoint holds that if Carvana Co. meets or modestly exceeds consensus on revenue and EPS, with stable or better-than-expected margin outcomes, the stock should see supportive reactions from investors who have been looking for confirmation of durable profitability. Conversely, any shortfalls would likely be evaluated mainly through the lens of unit economics and operational throughput rather than demand weakness, given the observed resilience in volumes and platform engagement.

In sum, institutional sentiment is notably constructive heading into February 18, 2026. The combination of high-50% year-over-year revenue growth expectations and a powerful EPS inflection creates an attractive setup for continued earnings momentum. While valuation sensitivities persist in some neutral views, the balance of recent research from leading firms aligns with the thesis that Carvana Co. is on a path to demonstrate stronger earnings quality this quarter, centered on scalable operations, disciplined unit economics, and increasingly material contributions from higher-margin services within its ecosystem.