According to data from Woofun AI, the September employment report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, pointing to a markedly weak overall labor market.
Gold Ten Data noted that employment changes across all major industries were at very low levels for the month, reflecting a further weakening of economic expansion momentum. A deeper look at the household survey shows that the number of unemployed people stood at 7.1 million in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month. It is worth noting that since March, the unemployment rate has fluctuated within a narrow range of 4.1% to 4.3%, highlighting the rigid nature of the labor market.
Among demographic breakdowns, the unemployment rate for Black workers rose to 7.0% in September, making it the only major worker group to show a clear increase. By contrast, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9%), adult women (3.6%), teenagers (14.5%), White workers (3.6%), Asian workers (2.9%), and Hispanic workers (4.7%) showed no material change during the month. The long-term unemployment problem remains severe, with the number of people jobless for 27 weeks or longer holding at about 1.9 million, accounting for 27.1% of all unemployed persons.
The labor force participation rate was 61.8%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.2%. These two key indicators have shown very little net change since January, indicating that the underlying labor supply has not expanded significantly. In addition, 4.5 million people worked part time for economic reasons, meaning they would prefer full-time work but were forced into part-time roles because of reduced hours or difficulty finding a job. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.8 million, and they were not counted as unemployed because they had not actively looked for work in the four weeks before the survey or were unable to accept a job.
Within this group, the number marginally attached to the labor force fell by 236,000 in September to 1.5 million. These people want and are available for work and had looked for a job in the past 12 months but had stopped looking in the last four weeks. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, changed little during the month at 414,000, as this group believes no jobs are available for them. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, these structural indicators together paint a picture of a labor market lacking vitality, with the difficulties facing the long-term unemployed and marginally attached workers showing no signs of easing.
The establishment survey data further revealed divergences among industries and stagnation in overall growth. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, far below the average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months. Healthcare continued its growth trend, adding 17,000 jobs in September, but the pace was slower than the average monthly gain of 33,000 over the previous 12 months. Specifically, ambulatory healthcare services added 13,000 jobs, hospitals added 12,000, while nursing and residential care facilities lost 9,000 jobs.
Construction employment rose by 11,000, little changed, after averaging 10,000 jobs per month over the past 12 months. Within the sector, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 12,000 jobs, indicating that nonresidential construction activity still has some support. Manufacturing employment rose by 9,000, also little changed, but has increased by 72,000 since a recent low in December 2025. In September, plastics and rubber products manufacturing added 5,000 jobs, and machinery manufacturing added 5,000, suggesting a recovery in some subsectors. However, financial activities lost 7,000 jobs and has shed 129,000 positions since a recent peak in May 2025. Most of those losses occurred in insurance carriers and related activities, which cut 90,000 jobs, reflecting continued deleveraging or efficiency gains in the financial industry.
In other major industries during the month, employment showed little or no change, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; professional and business services; social assistance; leisure and hospitality; other services; and government. On pay, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81 in September, and have risen 3.0% over the past 12 months. Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $32.60. On hours, the average workweek for all employees held at 34.4 hours; the manufacturing workweek held at 40.6 hours, with overtime unchanged at 3.0 hours; and the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees remained at 33.8 hours.
A more critical variable lies in revisions to historical data: July nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000; August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000. After these revisions, employment for July and August combined was 60,000 lower than previously reported, and this sharp downward revision seriously undercut earlier optimistic expectations for labor market resilience. Taken together, the US labor market is undergoing a substantive shift from strength to weakness, with industry divergence intensifying and downward revisions to historical data further confirming the fading of growth momentum. This is another signal that after continued job losses in finance in the second half of 2025, manufacturing and construction have also failed to provide enough offsetting strength.
The October 2026 Employment Situation report is scheduled for release on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern Time, or 20:30 Beijing time the same day. The market will be watching closely to see whether subsequent data continue this weak trend and whether wage growth can remain sticky against the backdrop of slowing employment.