Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that BUD APAC will announce its third quarter 2025 results on October 30. The firm expects BUD APAC's China market performance to further decelerate in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, due to factors including anti-luxury policies and subsidized food delivery services that have significantly dragged down online consumption, while BUD APAC has high exposure in the on-trade dining channels.
Additionally, ongoing destocking pressure continues to impact sales volume and brand mix, with the firm expecting greater short-term EBITDA pressure in the China market. Goldman Sachs anticipates weak sales volumes for BUD APAC in China and South Korea in the third quarter of 2025, partially offset by strong momentum in India, better average selling prices in South Korea, and favorable raw material cost tailwinds. The China market faces intensified margin pressure due to policy headwinds.
The firm updated foreign exchange impacts on sales, forecasting a 12.6% decline in organic revenue for the group in the third quarter, with Normalized EBITDA falling 15.8%. In US dollar terms, third quarter reported net profit is expected to be $158 million, compared to $201 million in the third quarter of 2024.
For the full year 2025 outlook, Goldman Sachs expects BUD APAC's East Asia Pacific region to achieve 2.1% organic EBITDA growth driven by average selling price increases, favorable brand and channel mix shifts, and cost efficiency initiatives. The West Asia Pacific region is expected to see organic EBITDA decline 11% year-over-year as continued operating deleverage and channel mix shifts offset cost tailwinds.