U.S. stock futures were volatile on Friday, while the dollar climbed alongside Treasury yields, as investors remained on high alert ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and awaited a potential Supreme Court ruling on former President Trump's tariff policies. European stocks rose 0.4%. Glencore Plc gained 7% in London after it resumed merger talks with Rio Tinto PLC. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.3%. Traders are preparing for two major risk events occurring consecutively on Friday, which could influence market sentiment in the short term and represent one of the most significant tests for global equities since their rebound from the "tariff-driven selloff" in April. In particular, the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls data will be scrutinized for clues regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets, noted, "We are indeed seeing some market swings ahead of tonight's U.S. jobs data and concerns over the Supreme Court ruling. Overall, the market remains cautiously optimistic, but we need greater geopolitical stability and clearer signals from the U.S., especially after the government shutdown previously obscured the data landscape." The nonfarm payrolls report is unlikely to cause "major volatility." Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the U.S. economy added approximately 70,000 jobs in December, slightly higher than the previous month; the unemployment rate is forecast to drop to 4.5%. The market has fully priced in at least two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts by 2026, with the first cut more likely to occur in April. Goldman Sachs indicated that unless the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report delivers a significant surprise, it is unlikely to substantially alter market expectations for the Fed's policy path, as current pricing is already firmly anchored around a "mid-year rate cut" framework. In a client report, Goldman Sachs projected a nonfarm payrolls increase of about 70,000, broadly aligning with mainstream market expectations. Although anecdotal evidence suggests the data might be slightly stronger, Goldman believes that a result close to expectations would reinforce the existing macroeconomic narrative without causing disruption. Current market pricing indicates the Fed will implement two full rate cuts this year, with the first 25-basis-point reduction anticipated in late April. Goldman Sachs noted that only a "fairly dramatic" upside or downside surprise in the jobs data could significantly shift the timing of the first rate cut earlier or later. From a market reaction perspective, Goldman Sachs considers a payrolls increase within the 70,000 to 100,000 range as the most constructive scenario for equities: it signifies ongoing economic expansion without reigniting inflation concerns or undermining expectations for an easing cycle. Such an outcome would support the view of a "moderate slowdown in the U.S. economy, rather than a sudden stall." Conversely, a figure below 50,000 might lead markets to perceive job growth as falling below the "breakeven" level required for economic stability, heightening fears of a more pronounced downturn and triggering growth anxieties. On the other hand, if payrolls exceed 125,000, Goldman Sachs believes markets might reassess the timing of the first rate cut, potentially pushing expectations from April to around June. Overall, Goldman Sachs does not anticipate the data will trigger "fireworks-level" major volatility. The report highlighted that market appetite for significant swings appears limited, based on both positioning and volatility pricing. As evidence, Goldman mentioned that the S&P 500's current implied daily trading range is approximately 68 basis points, indicating relatively muted expectations for a disruptive nonfarm payrolls impact. Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs. Separately, the Supreme Court could also rule as early as Friday on the fate of a large portion of Trump's tariffs. Hundreds of companies are queuing, hoping to reclaim part of the billions of dollars in tariffs paid to date. The ruling could upend U.S. trade policy and disrupt months of negotiations with partner countries. If the decision goes against Trump, corporate executives, customs brokers, and trade lawyers are preparing for a potential "refund battle" to recover approximately $150 billion in tariffs already paid by importers to the U.S. government. Vishnu Varathan, Head of Economics and Strategy for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a report, "Markets are in cautious mode ahead of the nonfarm payrolls data and a potential Supreme Court ruling on 'reciprocal tariffs'." Garfield Reynolds, Head of Bloomberg's MLIV Asia team, stated that Trump's increasing willingness to directly intervene in commercial activities could erode upward momentum for stocks and bonds, posing a potential headwind for global markets. U.S. assets are unlikely to see a decisive rally until the President's "market-distracting" rhythm slows. Dollar rises to one-month high. In bond markets, U.S. Treasury yields were largely flat as investors awaited the jobs data. Tradeweb data showed the two-year yield edged up 0.9 basis points to 3.495%; the 10-year yield dipped slightly by 0.6 basis points to 4.176%. Eurozone sovereign bond yields were mostly unchanged in early trading. This week, Eurozone countries collectively issued €66.3 billion in bonds via auctions and syndications. Germany's 10-year yield held steady at 2.830%, while other Eurozone 10-year yields saw minor declines. In currency markets, the dollar climbed to a one-month high and was on track for its best weekly performance since last November; among major currencies, the Japanese yen led losses. Steve Englander, Head of G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered, noted in a client report that the key to the Supreme Court ruling lies in whether a clear path exists to preserve past and future tariff revenues; achieving this would be positive for the dollar. Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING, said, "Expectations are building for a U.S. jobs report robust enough to keep the Fed on hold for longer today, and for the Supreme Court to rule against Trump's tariffs. We see this combination as slightly dollar-positive." U.S. initial jobless claims data released on Thursday showed a slight increase in applications. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds rate futures currently imply an 86% probability the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its January 27-28 two-day meeting, up from 68% a month ago. The dollar was largely flat against offshore yuan in Hong Kong trading, quoted at 6.9808. China's December consumer price index (CPI) accelerated year-on-year, reaching its highest level in nearly three years. However, the full-year inflation rate fell to a 16-year low, and industrial deflation persisted, fueling expectations for further stimulus measures to support weak demand. Bitcoin weakened ahead of the U.S. jobs data. Markets worry that strong data could reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, thereby dampening risk appetite. According to LSEG data, Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $90,760, still holding above the key $90,000 level. Bitcoin had earlier dropped to a six-day low of $89,245 on Thursday before recovering. IG analysts noted "intense buying" emerged above $90,000, suggesting Bitcoin could rise further if the jobs data proves weak. Crude oil advances. Elsewhere in markets, with investors monitoring developments in Venezuela and Iran, oil prices extended gains. Both major benchmarks rose over 3% in the previous session and were poised for strong weekly gains. Supporting factors include Trump's warning of a "strong strike" against Iran if its government violently suppresses protesters; additionally, a U.S. congressional bill could authorize severe sanctions on buyers of sanctioned Russian oil. Markets also await Trump's meeting with U.S. oil executives on Friday to discuss investments in Venezuela's oil and gas sector. Silver and gold were largely flat. Spot gold edged down 0.2% to $4,469.03 but remained on track for a weekly gain of over 3%. Gold hit a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26. Independent analyst Ross Norman stated, "Gold has primarily retreated over the past three days due to some profit-taking, but the key driver now is indeed dollar strength ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release." Earlier, U.S. mortgage-backed bonds rose and mortgage lender stocks strengthened after Trump took measures aimed at reducing housing costs. The outstanding volume of agency mortgage-backed bonds in the market is approximately $9 trillion. Focus Stocks. Gains continued pre-market for residential real estate stocks. Online home transaction platform Opendoor rose over 8%, homebuilder Lennar gained 2.24%, and D.R. Horton advanced 1.6%. Trump stated on Thursday he was "instructing representatives" to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, claiming this would lower interest rates and monthly payments. Oklo surged nearly 22% pre-market after Meta reached agreements with Vistra, Oklo, and TerraPower to jointly fund nuclear power projects in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Intel rose nearly 2% pre-market after Trump described having a "good meeting" with Intel's CEO. Rio Tinto fell 3.3% pre-market, while Glencore gained 6.1%, as the two companies restarted merger discussions. Novo Nordisk continued its rise, gaining over 2% pre-market after recording five consecutive gains; CICC assigned it an "Outperform Industry" rating. Revolution surged 15% pre-market on reports of acquisition talks with Merck. Huya continued its advance, rising 4.2% pre-market, as the public test of "Goose Goose Duck" went viral, garnering 5 million registrations within 24 hours and topping multiple charts. Hesai continued its rise, gaining over 1% pre-market, receiving a positive outlook and target price increase from CICC.