Dell and HP Enterprise Face Make-or-Break Moment After Historic Stock Surges

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The artificial intelligence boom has propelled Dell Technologies Inc. and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. to their strongest stock market performances ever recorded.

However, with both tech hardware manufacturers scheduled to release their latest financial results over the next two days, investors are questioning whether any announcement can sustain the remarkable rally.

"What additional surprise could push these stocks beyond the already lofty expectations? I honestly can't say," commented Ayako Yoshioka, senior investment strategist at Wealth Enhancement Group, which holds positions in both companies.

Dell shares have skyrocketed more than 250% so far in 2026, marking the third-best performance across the entire S&P 500 Index. Meanwhile, HP Enterprise has surged roughly 112%, securing the 13th spot in the benchmark. These gains reflect a widening of the AI trade beyond just chipmakers to encompass other elements of the infrastructure buildout, notably the servers these companies manufacture. The sheer scale of these advances remains remarkable in a market traditionally fixated on semiconductor producers, memory manufacturers, software developers, and hyperscalers constructing AI computing capacity.

Dell shares fell as much as 3.4% on Tuesday, while HP Enterprise dipped 2.8%.

"Previously, leadership rotated between different sectors," explained Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, which manages $1.4 trillion in assets and owns shares of both Dell and HP Enterprise. "Software was treated as guilty until proven innocent for a while—it got crushed, then recovered. Semiconductors led at times, then reversed course. Occasionally it felt like a one-horse race. Now, there's a rising tide lifting the entire technology sector."

That said, the bulk of gains for Dell and HP Enterprise occurred during the first five months of the year, when equity indices surged on AI enthusiasm. Dell shares jumped 47% in the two sessions following its impressive May 28 earnings release—including a record 33% single-day surge—but have since declined 2.1%. HP Enterprise shares climbed 47% in the three sessions from May 29 to June 2 around its results, yet have lost 7% since then.

Although both Dell and HP are iconic technology brands, their publicly traded shares have relatively short histories. Dell went private in 2013 and completed its Class V transaction to return to public markets in December 2018, while HP Enterprise began trading under ticker HPE on November 1, 2015, following the split from the original Hewlett-Packard Co. Despite this, neither stock had previously achieved triple-digit percentage annual gains, let alone the explosive performance Dell is currently delivering.

An 'Important Report Card' Moment

"My biggest regret this year is not purchasing Dell stock," admitted Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments. "The past six months have demonstrated tremendous growth and stock appreciation, but these upcoming reports serve as a critical report card. Their upside surprised everyone last quarter—but can lightning strike twice?"

The S&P 500 has gained 12% this year but merely 1.4% since June began. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index is up 15% in 2026 yet has dropped 4% since June 1.

The earnings reports from Dell and HP Enterprise follow last week's announcement from Nvidia Corp., whose CFO projected approximately 70% revenue growth by fiscal 2028. That news sent the chipmaker's shares soaring and reinforced confidence in the sustainability of AI spending commitments. Consequently, Dell and HP Enterprise now face an even higher threshold for success.

"Expectations were already substantial, but they've become even more elevated following Nvidia's results," noted Wealth Enhancement's Yoshioka. "This increases the risk of disappointment if these companies fail to meet the magnitude of what investors anticipate."

Wall Street sentiment toward both companies has grown increasingly bullish, driven by massive demand for servers—a crucial component of AI infrastructure. That optimism received validation last month when Super Micro Computer Inc. issued its own upbeat forecast. Dell's second-quarter net income is projected to surge nearly 150% on revenue growth exceeding 50%. HP Enterprise's net income is expected to triple on a 30% revenue increase.

Despite improving earnings expectations, this year's rallies have stretched valuations. HP Enterprise, traditionally commanding a modest multiple, trades at roughly 13 times forward twelve-month earnings—down from its May 29 peak of nearly 17 times but substantially above its 10-year average of 8.7. Dell is priced at 21 times forward earnings, off its June 1 high of 25 but representing a significant premium to its 10-year average of 8.7.

For context, the S&P 500 trades at approximately 19 times forward earnings, while the Nasdaq 100 sits at 21—both roughly aligned with historical averages.

The elevated valuations for Dell and HP Enterprise leave minimal margin for error in these results, keeping investor attention firmly fixed on management's forward guidance.

"Dell and HPE are considerably more expensive than their historical norms," observed 50 Park's Sarhan. "That's attributable to their growth rates exceeding historical levels. The crux of the matter is: they're abnormally expensive relative to their past because their growth is abnormally higher. Should the results suggest growth is normalizing, valuations could follow suit, which would likely trigger a stock pullback."

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