Tesla (TSLA.US) is scheduled to release its financial results next week. Deutsche Bank has provided an updated analysis focusing on the company's quarterly performance, its Robotaxi business, and the Terafab project. For the upcoming earnings report, the bank anticipates that key discussion points will include the deployment progress of Robotaxi, the development status of the humanoid robot (Optimus V3), the production schedule for the Cybercab, and details regarding the Terafab project and related capital expenditures. Deutsche Bank has slightly adjusted its price target for Tesla from $480 to $465, reflecting minor revisions to its valuation model and framework. The bank maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock.
Deutsche Bank noted that Tesla's first-quarter delivery performance was soft, as expected. The bank indicated that the Q1 2026 delivery figures primarily reflected previously anticipated headwinds, yet the overall trajectory remains on pace to meet Deutsche Bank's full-year delivery forecast. First-quarter deliveries totaled 358,023 vehicles, slightly below the market consensus of 365,600 vehicles. An intentional reduction in production of Model S and Model X vehicles, combined with overall weak global demand for electric vehicles, impacted quarterly deliveries. However, consumer confidence in the European market appears to have bottomed out and is showing signs of recovery.
Furthermore, Deutsche Bank stated that while the energy storage business segment is expected to maintain its growth momentum, energy storage deployments for the first quarter were only 8.8 GWh, significantly lower than the market expectation of 14.4 GWh. This shortfall is likely attributable to timing volatility in order fulfillment, often referred to as "lumpy deliveries," with sequential improvement anticipated in subsequent quarters.
Overall, Deutsche Bank estimates first-quarter revenue to be approximately $20.7 billion. While this figure represents a decline from the previous quarter, it reflects positive year-over-year growth. The bank forecasts an automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credit sales, of approximately 14.7%, down from 17.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The primary factors contributing to this margin compression include lower delivery volumes and the company's removal of the full upfront payment option for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, a policy change effective February 15th.