Bitcoin is navigating a period of intense volatility, with the central struggle defined by a clash between powerful upward momentum and the pivotal resistance level of $83,000, represented by the 365-day moving average.
From a technical perspective, the final week of August 2026 saw Bitcoin's bullish momentum accelerate at its quickest pace in 12 months. This strong support propelled the asset's intraday price on Binance to a peak of $81,272, marking the highest point since May 15, 2026.
Data compiled by Woofun AI reveals that CryptoQuant's "Bullish Score" index jumped from 30 to 80 points in just seven days. This index evaluates 10 network and market-related indicators, with 8 of them currently in positive territory. Notably, the last time this score reached such an extreme level was on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin was trading around $124,000.
Since Monday, August 17, 2026, Bitcoin's price has risen by 24%. At the time of writing, it is valued at approximately $78,800, reflecting a slight 0.11% gain over the last 24 hours. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, points out that while the metrics suggest a potential start of a bull cycle, the technical requirements demand a daily closing price above the 365-day moving average, a dynamic indicator currently sitting precisely at $83,000.
Liquidity injections on a macroeconomic level are adding further support to the market. The growth rate of spot market demand has reached its fastest pace since late December 2025, with activity in both futures and spot markets picking up simultaneously for the first time since October 2025.
The US Treasury has announced that, starting September 9, 2026, it will double the scale of its long-term sovereign bond buyback program, with each auction amounting to at least $4 billion. Industry analysts view this as a signal of a rising risk appetite. Additionally, data from The Kobeissi Letter shows that in the third week of August, institutional investors held long positions in S&P 500 futures totaling $375 billion, just $20 billion below the all-time high set in May 2026.
However, the risk of short-term overheating cannot be overlooked. Retail investors' unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, a level not seen since June 2025. On August 20, 2026, large holder wallets recorded a single-day net profit of $614 million, the highest of the year. Over the past 48 hours, inflows of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple into centralized exchanges have increased, a pattern that historically tends to be followed by selling pressure. As the bond repurchase program commences on September 9, 2026, the market will confront a severe liquidity test at the $83,000 resistance level.