Greetings, everyone, and welcome to today's market update. Asia-Pacific stock markets came under broad pressure today, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index and Topix Index both falling 1%. Hong Kong stocks opened lower and drifted further down, as the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index each dropped more than 3% during intraday trading. By sector, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, non-ferrous metals, and retail led the declines.
Yesterday, European bond markets suffered a severe sell-off. The yield on France's 10-year government bond briefly climbed to 4.96%, the highest level since 2002, while the spread between French and German bond yields widened to 1.4 percentage points. Italian and Greek government bond yields also rose in tandem, and the yield on the UK's 30-year government bond exceeded 6% for the first time. At the same time, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note briefly rose to 5.34% during intraday trading, the highest in nearly 24 years, before pulling back to 5.24%. Some analysts warned that the market is faintly giving off the sense that "a crisis is brewing."
This round of selling was mainly driven by renewed expectations of higher inflation and interest rates. Middle East conflicts have pushed energy prices higher, with Brent crude oil futures breaking through the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday. Meanwhile, persistently strong US economic data has intensified concerns that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. Europe's own fiscal pressures in the bond market, along with forced liquidation of highly leveraged hedge fund positions, further amplified market volatility.
The sharp fluctuations in the bond market also weighed on risk assets. On Thursday, the pan-European Stoxx 600 Index fell 1.3%, the FTSE 100 Index dropped 1.7%, European bank stocks came under notable pressure, and the euro fell to its lowest level in more than a year. US stocks were relatively resilient, with the S&P 500 Index rising 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 Index gaining 0.3%. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson said policymakers should allow more time to assess whether further rate hikes are needed. As a result, market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike in October fell sharply from 70% earlier in the week to about 27%.
International Monetary Fund spokesperson Julie Kozack said at a regular press conference on October 1 that the US-Iran conflict has had an impact on the world economy. In addition to countries with limited policy buffers and net energy importers being affected, those that have not yet integrated into the artificial intelligence supply chain and are unable to fully benefit from related growth dividends "deserve particular attention," and their situation is concerning. Currently, investors are focused on the US nonfarm payrolls data due tonight for new clues on the Fed's policy path.