According to China Steel Association data, in late July 2025, steel inventory at key statistical steel enterprises reached 14.78 million tons, decreasing by 880,000 tons or 5.6% from the previous ten-day period; increasing by 2.41 million tons or 19.5% from the beginning of the year; decreasing by 670,000 tons or 4.3% from the same period last month; decreasing by 1.27 million tons or 7.9% from the same period last year; and increasing by 290,000 tons or 2.0% from the same period two years ago.
In the first half of the year, key steel enterprises under China Steel Association statistics achieved cumulative operating revenue of 2,998.5 billion yuan, down 5.79% year-on-year; operating costs reached 2,805.5 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year; total profit amounted to 59.2 billion yuan, up 63.26% year-on-year; average profit margin reached 1.97%, up 0.83 percentage points year-on-year.
Zhao Minge, Chairman of China Iron and Steel Association, pointed out that strong supply capacity and weakening demand intensity remain the main contradiction in the current steel market. While steel industry profits have shown some recovery, their sustainability remains insufficient.
From policy levels to industry actions, recent signals indicate accelerated capacity management. Industry interviews reveal that "capacity management" will become an important task for multiple industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and photovoltaics in the second half of the year, with relevant departments, industry associations, and enterprises all planning strategies to break through "involution."
Industry insiders indicate that this round of capacity management is expected to achieve optimization through "market elimination + technological substitution," with enterprises actively exploring market-oriented capacity clearing paths.
Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that demand is expected to gradually bottom out. On the supply side, even without considering supply policies, the steel industry has been experiencing losses for an extended period, and market-oriented supply clearing has begun to emerge. The steel industry is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom. If supply policies are implemented, industry supply contraction will accelerate, and industry recovery will progress more rapidly.
CITIC Securities research report believes that from January to July, China exported 67.983 million tons of steel, up 11.4% year-on-year, with an average export price of $699.7 per ton. In the first seven months, Chinese exports demonstrated strong resilience under external pressure, with core drivers including emerging market development, high-tech product competitiveness, and private enterprise vitality.
According to Mysteel reports, from August 16 to 25, based on meteorological condition assessments, Tangshan independent steel rolling enterprises may cease production at any time, with mandatory shutdowns from August 25 to September 3. Some independent steel rolling enterprises have received production restriction notices. If production restriction measures are implemented, the daily output impact of 35 billet-type steel enterprises in Tangshan area would be approximately 90,000 tons, and steel profit margins are expected to recover.
Related Hong Kong steel sector stocks: MAANSHAN IRON (00323), Ansteel (00347), CHINA ORIENTAL (00581), Tieh Huo (01029), Chongqing Iron & Steel (01053)