February 9: Last week in the gold market, international gold prices experienced a deep decline followed by a significant rebound, forming a long lower shadow candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. This contrasts with the previous week's inverted hanging man pattern, suggesting a potential reversal of the prior bearish sentiment and indicating that negative factors may have been exhausted. Consequently, for the outlook, prices are expected to either enter a phase of sustained consolidation or resume their upward trajectory to establish new highs. Therefore, at this juncture, patience is more critical than active trading.
In terms of specific price action, gold started the week with a gap-down open at $4792.00 per ounce, extending losses initially to record a weekly low of $4402.14. Subsequently, prices found a bottom and rebounded, showing signs of stabilizing and shifting towards a bullish bias. However, after rallying to a weekly high of $5091.81 on Wednesday, buyers failed to sustain a break above resistance levels, leading to profit-taking. This resulted in another decline on Thursday, with prices falling back near the week's opening level by Friday. Ultimately, renewed buying interest emerged at the lows, pushing the weekly close to $4960.86. The weekly trading range was $689.67. Compared to the previous week's close of $4865.11, this represents a gain of $95.75, or 1.97%.
The price movements were influenced by several factors. Initially, selling pressure from the prior week's sharp decline, coupled with easing geopolitical tensions and the signing of a tariff agreement, drove prices lower. However, subsequent renewed friction within the eased geopolitical landscape, alongside comments from Federal Reserve Governor Mikan suggesting the need for interest rate cuts slightly exceeding one percentage point this year, strengthened fundamental support, prompting the rebound from the lows.
Later, profit-taking activities, another reversal towards eased geopolitical tensions, the CME Group's further increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures, and Argentina's announcement of a trade agreement with the Trump administration collectively exerted pressure, causing gold to encounter resistance and turn lower again.
Finally, supported by underlying buying interest and data such as ADP figures, weekly jobless claims, and the preliminary US one-year inflation expectations for February, which reignited expectations for interest rate cuts, gold prices once again rebounded from their lows.
Looking ahead to Monday, February 9th: International gold opened higher, driven by escalating tensions over the weekend involving Russia and Ukraine. However, gains were limited due to a strengthening US Dollar Index after its own gap-down open, coupled with resistance from moving averages reflecting the previous week's rebound. A sustained break above this resistance is needed to reinforce bullish momentum; otherwise, prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a range. Nevertheless, from a trend perspective, with gold prices still trading above key moving averages like the middle Bollinger Band and the 30-day average, the overall bias remains tilted to the upside. Therefore, even if consolidation persists, it may present opportunities for entering long positions.
Furthermore, this week brings key US economic data releases, including December Retail Sales month-over-month, January Unemployment Rate, January Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls (in thousands), and January CPI figures year-over-year and month-over-month (unadjusted). Based on recently published data outcomes and market expectations, these figures are largely anticipated to be supportive for gold prices. Consequently, the trading strategy for the week remains biased towards buying on dips for potential gains. Even if the final data outcomes prove negative for gold, the impact is likely to result in range-bound volatility rather than a sharp downtrend, making a predominantly long-oriented approach reasonable.
Fundamentally, although bullish momentum has not yet clearly reasserted itself for a strong push higher, the medium-term outlook retains the potential for new highs. This recent pullback does not signify a trend reversal but appears more like a rapid repricing event within a high-volatility environment. Against the backdrop of increased volatility across major global asset classes, capital is frequently shifting between risk-on and safe-haven assets, leading to characteristic sharp rallies and declines in gold. The bullish prospects remain intact.
Currently, the latest data shows job openings have decreased to 6.54 million, while weekly initial jobless claims have risen to 231,000. These two indicators jointly suggest a cooling labor market. This development is significant—it not only increases the likelihood of further disinflation but also substantially boosts market expectations for the Fed to initiate rate cuts within the year, providing medium to long-term support for gold.
Thus, within the context of the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate-cutting cycle, gold prices are expected to maintain their upward trend. However, attention is warranted on short-term adjustments caused by recurring geopolitical tensions and potential pressure from a stronger US Dollar driven by policies of other central banks. Therefore, gold prices are poised either to consolidate for several weeks before rising again or to directly extend last week's rebound momentum to climb towards new highs.
Technically, on the monthly chart, despite February's sharp decline, gold found support near the level of the previously broken ascending trendline resistance (now turned support) from January, prompting a rebound. This suggests the new bullish phase remains valid. Subsequently, prices are expected to either strengthen further while holding above this trendline support or consolidate before resuming their upward climb. Key support is observed around $4300; maintaining levels above this keeps the expectation for new bullish highs alive, while a weekly close below it would signal a potential end to the bull market.
On the weekly chart, last week's rebound from the lows and subsequent positive close indicate that the bearish implications of the previous week's shooting star pattern may have been exhausted. This also hints at a potential resurgence of strength. Moreover, the overall price structure remains within an ascending trend. Therefore, support levels near the 5 and 10-week moving averages should be monitored, maintaining the strategy of buying during dips.
On the daily chart, gold has currently stabilized and rebounded. Although it has not yet convincingly broken above the resistance posed by the 10-day moving average, and oscillator indicators continue to show bearish signals—suggesting potential for further declines below this level—the price also finds support from numerous other moving averages. Current trading remains above the 30-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band, with the bands still having potential to expand upwards. Hence, while a confirmed break above resistance is needed for a stronger bullish signal, the probability currently favors further rebound. The operative strategy thus remains buying on dips.
For specific real-time trading guidance, refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are provided below; exact entry and exit points should be confirmed based on real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4910 or $4800; resistance levels are around $5100 or $5190. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $77.700 or $74.70; resistance levels are around $83.10 or $86.10.