A recent report from Guotai Haitong Securities indicates that the solar photovoltaic (PV) supply chain is beginning to show signs of price increases. According to data from the Silicon Industry Association, polysilicon prices remained unchanged last week, while 2.0mm glass rose by 0.5 yuan to 9.75 yuan per square meter, and 3.2mm glass climbed 0.75 yuan to 17 yuan per square meter. Data from Infolink showed that 182mm wafers increased by 0.03 yuan to 0.83 yuan per piece, 182mm cells rose 0.02 yuan to 0.29 yuan per watt, 201R cells increased 0.02 yuan to 0.28 yuan per watt, and 210mm cells rose 0.02 yuan to 0.285 yuan per watt. The firm believes this upward price trend signals that companies with cost and technology advantages are likely to be the first to reach a profit inflection point.

Polysilicon in a Price Restructuring Phase

Last week, polysilicon prices held steady with no market transactions completed. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the domestic polysilicon market continued its wait-and-see stance, with all parties observing the effects of industry regulations and the supply chain's operational status while awaiting a new consensus on pricing. The brokerage argues that current prices are well below the cost range of high-quality production capacity, which is not conducive to market-driven elimination of inefficient players. This irrational competition is unsustainable, and subsequent regulatory enforcement is expected to drive price improvements, with a clear upward trend from the bottom.

Cell Prices Rise Broadly

Cell prices increased across the board last week, with a strong market sentiment supporting higher prices and the trading price midpoint moving upward. According to SMM, overall production plans for August are slightly reduced compared to July, and inventory levels are declining. The rise in silver prices is also a significant contributing factor. The firm suggests that domestic demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter, and overseas demand remains robust. As module demand improves, prices are expected to be further transmitted down the chain.

Solar Sector at Historical Lows, Worth Close Attention

The brokerage believes the solar sector has undergone a significant correction, placing it at historical lows overall. With prices already showing signs of a rise and supply-demand dynamics continuously improving, the sector's valuation is expected to improve as the inflection points for policy and earnings approach. The current position is seen as a historical bottom, making it a key area for investor focus.

Risk Warnings

Risks include policy volatility in the industry, intensifying competition, the risk of new technology substitution, and product price fluctuations.