The Hong Kong stock market last week was driven by speculation over the Sino-US leaders' meeting and negotiations between the US and Iran, with sentiment leaning toward the abstract side, and the index ultimately retreated from its highs.

The Sino-US leaders' talks concluded successfully. Competition has not been eliminated, but both sides agreed to manage risks and avoid full confrontation, leaving differences at the negotiating table and reducing geopolitical uncertainty in global markets.

Eight points of consensus were reached this time. For us, the core lies in establishing mechanisms such as a trade council, reaching a reciprocal tariff reduction arrangement of US$30 billion, and extending the trade truce by 60 days.

According to disclosures from the White House, Chinese goods that the US side plans to give more favorable tariff treatment to include small household appliances, toys, festive decorations, and children's car safety seats. These areas may see opportunities. At the same time, shipping logistics and shipbuilding are seeing a dual improvement in trade volumes and policy risk, and combined with geopolitics, these two sectors are expected to continue strengthening.

On the US-Iran front, Trump rejected Iran's previous navigation framework proposal submitted through mediation channels and demanded that the Persian Gulf waterway be reopened unconditionally.

This week is the final week of the mainland long holiday, and capital flows are relatively quiet. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, August PCE, and September nonfarm payrolls will be released one after another, directly testing the Fed's October rate path.

From September 30 to October 2, several Fed officials including Goolsbee, Musalem, Williams, and Cook will speak in succession. Current market pricing puts the probability of an October rate hike at close to 70%, and long-end US Treasury yields have risen to their highest level since 2007.

Micron will report fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results after the close on Wednesday. This earnings report will serve as an important window for gauging the prosperity of DRAM, HBM, and the entire AI data center supply chain.

OpenAI's developer conference released new products including GPT-6 Cyber; Tesla officially unveiled its next-generation Roadster. The technology sector is leaning more toward earnings performance.

This Week's Top Picks

CONANT OPTICAL (02276) is expected to maintain steady growth in its core business. In 26H1, affected by raw material shortages, shipment pace slowed, causing core business revenue and gross margin improvement to fall slightly short of expectations; in 26H2, with higher selling prices for 1.74 products and restored raw material supply, the core business is expected to resume steady growth, and the logic of increasing the share of proprietary brands and customized products continues to be realized.

The mass production pace of core smart glasses products is advancing as scheduled. Although the Meta Connect conference did not release Meta Rayban Display 2, some information has already leaked to the market, and formal mass production is expected in December. The second-generation product is expected to optimize visual output, apply AI multimodality, support gesture interaction, and improve battery life to 8 hours.

In addition, in 2027, overseas giants such as Apple and Google are all expected to launch new AI glasses products, driving renewed industry enthusiasm, and Conant's performance is also expected to be released.

The model side continues to iterate, and the AI device side is expected to benefit. MetaMuse can help users complete guided fitness training, record diet, provide shopping assistance based on products the user is currently viewing, and understand the user's surrounding environment and other perceptual tasks. Meta announced that the company is bringing Muse into its own smart glasses.

Zheshang Securities estimates the company's overall operating profit for 2026-2027 at 710 million and 960 million yuan, corresponding to current PE of 23x and 17x, respectively, of which core business operating profit is 650 million and 740 million yuan, and smart glasses profit is 60 million and 220 million yuan.

Industry Watch

The express delivery industry's "anti-involution" efforts continue to advance. Benefiting from the industry's "anti-involution" and enterprises' digital and intelligent cost reduction, domestic e-commerce express delivery is expected to enter a profit recovery period.

From September 14 to September 20, postal express cumulative collections totaled about 4.131 billion pieces, up 1.62% week-on-week and up 6.28% year-on-year; cumulative deliveries totaled about 4.053 billion pieces, down 0.37% week-on-week and up 5.44% year-on-year.

According to related reports, following multiple areas in Henan and Yiwu in Zhejiang, starting September 20, several express delivery companies in the Anhui region raised the minimum per-ticket price by 0.15 yuan on top of the originally implemented service price; Jiangsu also implemented peak-season price adjustments from the same date, with an increase of no less than 0.1 yuan per ticket.

With internal profitability improvement and external incremental expansion, key Hong Kong stock focuses include YTO INTL EXP (06123) and ZTO Express (02057). In addition, overseas e-commerce markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America are booming, and cross-border e-commerce going global opens up incremental space. Companies with global fulfillment networks have stronger growth attributes, and J&T Express (01519) is worth close attention.

Data Watch

Data released by HKEX shows that the total open interest of Hang Seng Index futures (September) is 68,728 contracts, with net open interest at 25,074 contracts. The settlement date for Hang Seng Index futures is September 29, 2026. This week is the futures settlement period.

The Hang Seng Index is at 24,510 points, and the dense bull certificate zone below is close to the central axis, giving Hong Kong stocks downward pressure. The US 30-year Treasury yield broke through 5.5%, continuing to set a new high since 2004. On Friday alone, three Fed officials released hawkish signals, warning about inflation risks. The Hang Seng Index is expected to fall this week.

Editor's Remarks

Hong Kong stocks are staging an interesting "seesaw market," with Hang Seng Tech and Hang Seng Biotech showing clear divergence. Incremental capital in 2026 is generally limited, and sector rotation is prominent.

Since June this year, southbound capital's inflow into the two major sectors has weakened noticeably, and foreign capital has taken over pricing dominance. Funds are shifting between the two high-elasticity tracks: foreign capital continues to flow out of Hang Seng Tech and instead returns in a big way to biotech, creating a pattern of weak technology and strong biopharmaceuticals.

In addition, under expectations of tighter global liquidity, risk aversion is rising. Compared with volatile growth tracks, high-dividend defensive sectors such as power, telecom, and utilities are more favored by stable funds. In a choppy market, there is no need to chase hot themes; balancing defense with stable cash flow may be a more comfortable allocation approach.