Economists at JPMorgan Chase have indicated that the global economic consequences of the conflict involving Iran are contingent on how long the hostilities persist. They identified rising oil prices as the most probable economic transmission channel capable of generating significant ripple effects.

If the conflict is brief, oil prices may quickly revert to their previous trajectory, and the global economy might avoid severe disruption.

Conversely, if oil prices remain elevated throughout the first half of the year, the energy price shock could reduce the annualized global GDP growth rate for the first half by 0.6 percentage points, while simultaneously pushing global consumer inflation up by more than 1 percentage point.