Spot Gold:
As of August 4, fundamental factors show gold prices are fluctuating in a volatile range. This is driven by uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, rising inflation concerns, and the market awaiting this week's U.S. employment data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Upcoming data releases, including the U.S. July ADP employment change, the July unemployment rate, and the July non-farm payrolls report, are generally expected to be favorable for gold prices. Consequently, the weekly trend is expected to remain range-bound, with a short-term upward bias.
Technical Analysis:
Gold encountered resistance from the EMA50 in recent intraday trading, failing to sustain its earlier gains and pulling back. The predominant short-term downtrend persists, with selling pressure remaining evident. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has begun to show a positive crossover, which could provide cautious support for a bullish attempt in the near term. Nevertheless, a full recovery of upward momentum still depends on gold's ability to break above the moving average and consolidate above this technical resistance level. The gold market is maintaining a narrow consolidation pattern, and a directional breakout will likely require confirmation from Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data. On the daily chart, gold has formed a consolidation center between the 4000 and 4100 USD range. The MACD histogram shows a modest expansion of red bars, and the RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that short-term momentum is building. Key upside resistance is near 4120 USD, while the 4000 USD psychological level provides strong support below. Key focus for the evening session is on the resistance zone at 4100/4118 USD and the support zone at 4040/4000 USD.
Evening Trading Suggestions:
Personal suggestion: Aggressive approach: buy on a pullback to 4050 ± 2; conservative approach: buy at 4006 ± 2. Aggressive approach: sell on a bounce to 4095 ± 2; conservative approach: sell at 4110 ± 2. Set stop-loss at 15 USD each. Target profit: 30/50 USD. [GOLD Pivot: 4082 USD/oz. These views are for reference only. Diversify positions reasonably and strictly control risks.]
WTI Crude Oil:
On Tuesday (August 4) during the Asian session, WTI crude oil prices saw a rebound after a decline. On Monday, former U.S. President Donald Trump further stated that negotiations were "ongoing," a comment that quickly dominated market sentiment. Investors broadly bet on a de-escalation of the Middle East situation, leading to the rapid unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums and a significant drop in international crude oil prices. However, Iran has stated that it is currently not engaged in any negotiations with the U.S., and the outlook for passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. This news-driven high volatility is expected to become the norm for the crude oil market.
Technical Analysis:
With conflicting statements from the U.S. and Iran regarding negotiations, the supply risk from the Middle East has not been truly resolved, and volatility in international oil prices has further intensified. Technically, on the daily chart, the MACD indicator's DIF line has crossed below the DEA line, forming a bearish crossover. The red bars are continuously contracting and showing signs of turning green, indicating weakening upward momentum and a potential trend reversal. On the 4-hour chart, long and short positions are locked in a stalemate, with prices repeatedly crossing the moving average system. The short-term objective trend direction has entered a phase of oscillation. There is a need for a short-term corrective rebound, and oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend today. Key resistance for the evening session is at 84.2/86.0 USD, while key support is at 80.2/79.5 USD.
Evening Trading Suggestions:
Personal suggestion: Aggressive approach: buy on a pullback to 80.8 ± 0.2; conservative approach: buy at 79.6 ± 0.2. Aggressive approach: sell on a bounce to 84.2 ± 0.2; conservative approach: sell at 85.7 ± 0.2. Set stop-loss at 1.0 point each. Target profit: 2.0 USD per barrel. [WTI Pivot: 81.2 USD/barrel. These views are for reference only. Diversify positions reasonably and strictly control risks.]