Gold prices experienced volatility over the past week, influenced by recurring Middle East conflicts impacting oil and gold prices, alongside divergent gold trading activities by various central banks. From April 3 to April 9, the closing price of London gold (spot gold) fluctuated within a narrow range of $4,600 to $4,700 per ounce. Industry experts suggest that the direction of gold prices remains unclear, and short-term pressure on gold may continue.
On April 8, Beijing time, easing Middle East geopolitical tensions led to a sharp decline in international crude oil prices, while international gold and silver prices surged rapidly. Spot gold once broke through $4,800 per ounce. However, on April 9, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. According to a Xinhua News Agency report, the Iranian parliament speaker stated that Iran-US negotiations had not yet begun, and three ceasefire terms had already been violated, escalating the situation again. London gold (spot gold) subsequently fell, dropping from a high of $4,850 per ounce to $4,731 per ounce by 5:00 PM on April 9, and was quoted at $4,748 per ounce at 10:00 AM on April 10.
At the same time, gold sales by central banks of countries such as Turkey and Russia have drawn market attention. Data released by the Central Bank of Turkey on April 2 showed that in the nearly two weeks ending March 28, the country's gold reserves decreased significantly by nearly 120 tonnes. Previously, the National Bank of Poland announced in early March plans to sell part of its approximately 550 tonnes of gold reserves to raise up to about $13 billion. Additionally, according to World Gold Council statistics, the Central Bank of Russia sold a cumulative 15 tonnes of gold in the first two months of 2026.
In contrast, data released by the People's Bank of China on April 7 provided encouragement for gold investors. As of the end of March, China's gold reserves reached 74.38 million ounces (approximately 2,313.48 tonnes), an increase of 160,000 ounces (about 4.98 tonnes) compared to the end of February. This marks the first time since March 2025 that the PBOC's monthly increase has exceeded 100,000 ounces, and represents the 17th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the Chinese central bank.
BoShi Gold ETF Fund Manager Wang Xiang believes that risks of further escalation in Middle East conflicts persist. Against this backdrop, oil and the US dollar show higher upward certainty, while gold may be weighed down by corrections in risk assets. Combined with short-term selling pressure from some central banks stabilizing market demand, gold may continue to face pressure in the short term. From a medium-term perspective, however, gold could potentially stabilize and rebound. The negative impact of rising oil prices on markets has limits; if conflicts prolong, market pricing focus may shift from inflation shocks to concerns about slowing economic growth. At that point, even with high oil prices and weaker US stocks, US Treasury bonds and gold could see upward momentum. Currently, markets have not fully transitioned to this pricing phase.