On February 18th, despite increasing market debate about gold prices reaching a peak, with arguments that the over 170% surge in the past five years has exhausted future potential, this bearish logic overlooks fundamental shifts in the global financial landscape. GTC ZEHI Capital stated that geopolitical fragmentation has ushered in a new era of volatility, which acts not just as a short-term stimulus but as a core driver incentivizing a long-term global capital shift towards physical assets. Against a backdrop of currency devaluation pressures, inflation risks, and concerns over sovereign asset credibility, gold has consistently outperformed other major asset classes in stress tests.

Addressing market concerns about a "central bank sell-off risk," GTC ZEHI Capital indicated that data confirms a reversal in global monetary authorities' preferences. Since the onset of international instability in 2022, net gold purchases by global central banks have doubled. Analysts believe that while historical precedents exist, such as the UK's reserve sales causing a significant gold price drop, the current global trend towards decentralization is irreversible. Relevant surveys show that 95% of central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings in 2025, with no banks expressing an intention to reduce them. This structural demand support is becoming the most solid defensive moat for gold prices.

Regarding the role of retail investors, GTC ZEHI Capital noted that while current retail participation is active, it remains far from historical extremes. Current global gold ETF holdings are approximately 100 million ounces, representing only 8% of total central bank reserves, indicating the absence of an irrational retail bubble. Furthermore, the research team believes that beyond hedging short-term risks, gold's value as a low-correlation asset in reducing portfolio volatility is gaining recognition among more large financial institutions, such as major insurance companies. This institutional incremental capital is expected to continue pushing the price center higher into 2026.

Looking ahead to 2026, a weaker US dollar, a reassessment of US Treasury yields, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties are projected to collectively support a long-term upward trend for gold prices. GTC ZEHI Capital asserts that while the ascent will not be linear, the process of official reserve diversification is far from over. According to the latest forecasts, global central bank gold buying demand in 2026 is expected to remain at a high average of 585 tons per quarter, signaling that the "reassessment movement" of gold as a core safe-haven asset still has a long way to go.