On September 22, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) prepares to make significant revisions to its global oil demand peak forecasts, the global oil market is entering a new cyclical phase. NCE Platform believes this phase is characterized by a geographic divergence between supply and demand centers: Asia has become the core region for demand growth, while the Americas dominate supply increases. Meanwhile, political dynamics are deeply embedded in energy trade chains, making future oil market uncertainty and volatility more persistent.
Energy analysis emphasizes this divergent pattern, citing Argus forecasts that Americas countries will contribute up to 85% of non-OPEC supply increases between 2024 and 2030, primarily from Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Guyana, and Suriname. Canada continues to unlock potential through oil sands and shale oil projects; Brazil relies on deepwater field expansion to become a major global supplier of offshore crude; while Guyana and Suriname, as emerging production areas, are rapidly attracting international oil company investments. NCE Platform notes that while U.S. shale oil production maintains scale, future growth potential is limited and expected to gradually slow. These changes do not mean the global market will escape dependence on OPEC, as OPEC and its partners still control nearly two-thirds of global supply capacity.
On the demand side, the future center of gravity is shifting to Asia. Argus data shows India's oil demand growth over the next six years could reach 2 million barrels per day, driven primarily by transportation, industrialization processes, and petrochemical industry expansion. Market forecasts suggest India will become the main engine of global demand growth this year (excluding strategic reserves). In comparison, other Asian regions show more moderate growth at only about 600,000 barrels per day; the Middle East is expected to add 1 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030, Africa is projected to increase by 600,000 barrels per day, and Latin America by about 500,000 barrels per day. NCE Platform believes these forecasts have reference value but cautions about their uncertainty, as economic growth rates, industrial structural adjustments, and energy transition processes can change demand trajectories at any time.
Political factors play an increasingly critical role in this landscape. After the EU reduced Russian energy imports, Russia redirected exports eastward and strengthened cooperation with major Asian countries. Regarding natural gas, the advancement of the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline enables Russia to plan gas exports to Asia roughly equivalent to volumes originally sent to Europe. For crude oil, Russian exports flow heavily into India, a trend that has drawn U.S. displeasure. Analysis points out this is a typical case of political and energy intersection: India must balance its strategic relationship with the U.S. against energy cooperation with Russia.
Recent reports indicate the U.S. is considering pushing through the G7 to impose tariffs on India and major Asian importers to limit their ability to import Russian crude. NCE Platform notes that by comparison, the EU has shown caution due to concerns about tariff "blowback effects," though Brussels continues discussing potential sanctions measures. This series of developments highlights the deep binding of energy and geopolitics, potentially leading to more uncertainty in the future. For example, energy flows may be forced to adjust in short periods due to sanctions, tariffs, or diplomatic friction, resulting in severe price volatility.
Looking ahead, NCE Platform believes the global oil market will remain in long-term competition among multiple forces. On one hand, emerging production areas in the Americas provide more supply flexibility to the market; on the other hand, demand growth in Asia, particularly India, may continue shaping market direction over the next decade. Simultaneously, electric vehicle adoption, improved renewable energy competitiveness, and policy changes in various countries could disrupt existing forecasts, making the demand peak question more uncertain. Most critically, geopolitics will continue as a core variable affecting market stability, with new volatility becoming a normalized presence in oil markets.