To provide more accurate futures information for lithium battery industry companies, a collaborative "Weekly Lithium Talk" program has been officially launched. This program integrates resources from CITIC Securities Futures, Fubao Information and other platforms. The program relies on the "Futures New Energy" WeChat video platform, CITIC Securities Futures' official mini-program, combined with Fubao Information's professional data support, aiming to bring deeper, more professional, and market-oriented insights to the lithium battery industry through expert dialogue format.

On September 5, the first online dialogue live broadcast of the "Weekly Lithium Talk" program was successfully held. The broadcast invited guests including Wu Huaimin, General Manager of Fubao Information's Lithium Battery Division, Hu Junlong, General Manager of Zeyan Consulting, He Jiajin, Senior Researcher of Electric New Energy at Huachuang Securities, and Zhang Weixin, Chief Lithium Battery Analyst at CITIC Securities Futures. The theme focused on "Why Lithium Carbonate Prices Are Weak During Peak Season," providing in-depth analysis of current core contradictions in the lithium carbonate market.

**Lithium Carbonate Prices May Be Oversold**

From the previous high of 90,000 yuan/ton, lithium carbonate futures prices have continued declining for more than half a month, reaching a low of 71,120 yuan/ton last week before rebounding and stabilizing. On September 5, lithium carbonate futures continued rising, with the main LC2511 contract closing at 74,260 yuan/ton, up 1.39%.

Regarding recent continuous declines in lithium carbonate futures prices, He Jiajin believes the main reason was the rapid price increase triggered by news of Jiangxi mine shutdowns, which prompted numerous upstream production companies to enter the market for hedging, creating certain hedging pressure that became one factor driving lithium carbonate prices down again. Additionally, gradual mine resumptions reduced market expectations of large-scale mine shutdowns. On the demand side, if downstream battery manufacturers planned to rush installations before year-end, they should have started stockpiling in late August to September. However, current actual conditions show insufficient willingness and weak momentum for battery manufacturers' rush installations. It can be said that downstream demand for lithium carbonate has underperformed expectations.

Zhang Weixin believes recent continuous declines in lithium carbonate futures prices were more due to long capital exodus, possibly representing overselling.

"After CATL's Ganxiawo project shutdown and the CITIC Guoan incident fermented, lithium carbonate LC251 contract open interest increased significantly, indicating many investors established positions at high levels," Zhang Weixin stated. When these investors realized lithium carbonate's upward price potential was limited, they continuously reduced positions, driving lithium carbonate futures prices down. Although CATL's Ganxiawo project shut down, the lithium carbonate supply side showed no obvious reduction signs. Instead, increased spodumene imports led to inventory accumulation, promoting lithium carbonate price declines to some extent.

Long-term, Zhang Weixin believes Jiangxi region mine shutdowns will have relatively obvious impacts on lithium carbonate fundamentals, with price centers moving up due to improved supply-demand relationships. Before Jiangxi region mine shutdowns are finalized, lithium carbonate prices may be oversold.

**Expected Range-Bound Trading Ahead**

"Currently, CATL's Ganxiawo project shutdown hasn't significantly impacted lithium carbonate fundamentals, and market trading sentiment is gradually returning to calm. However, there remains a certain window period before this event finally settles. During this period, lithium carbonate price fluctuations are normal," Wu Huaimin said.

Wu Huaimin introduced that current foreign mine imports are at historical highs. According to Chinese customs data, July 2025 total spodumene imports reached 751,000 tons, increasing 30.35% month-over-month. Fubao lithium mine shipping data shows that as of September 4, August spodumene concentrate cumulative arrivals increased 18% month-over-month. July-August are expected to be peak periods for lithium mine imports, with September-October imports potentially declining.

"Currently, foreign mine imports haven't shown month-over-month significant increases or decreases. Therefore, mine-side impacts on lithium carbonate markets are limited," Wu Huaimin said.

Wu Huaimin introduced that as of the week of September 4, lithium carbonate enterprise production was 17,800 tons, up 800 tons week-over-week. For inventory, lithium carbonate weekly inventory was 132,000 tons, down 0.89% week-over-week.

"Looking back at 2024, the lithium carbonate industry's destocking timing was also in September-October, coincidentally after CATL's Ganxiawo project shutdown, showing relatively obvious inventory reduction," Wu Huaimin stated. Compared to last year, current lithium carbonate inventory reduction speed is slower, with mine-side and lithium carbonate production remaining relatively stable.

Looking ahead, Hu Junlong believes current lithium carbonate demand performance is acceptable, especially battery-side demand which may maintain growth for an extended period. However, battery manufacturers currently face insufficient capacity. Although battery factories are gradually expanding production, full production timing may be after next year's first quarter. Therefore, significant demand growth from battery manufacturers may come after next year's second quarter.

"Theoretically, September is lithium carbonate's peak demand season, but this year CATL's Ganxiawo project shutdown caused the peak season to arrive early, limiting September's incremental space," Hu Junlong stated. Short-term, lithium carbonate demand won't see particularly large increases, potentially maintaining stable conditions. Under relatively balanced supply-demand patterns, lithium carbonate prices may trade in ranges.

Zhang Weixin also believes that without new positive news drivers, lithium carbonate futures may trade range-bound. After previous overselling, lithium carbonate futures are expected to show corrective rebound movements, though upward space is relatively limited. Further increases would require demand-side improvements or intensified supply-side disruptions.