According to a research report from JPMorgan, BUD APAC (01876) reported a 25% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025, which was 12% below market consensus, with sales falling 4% year-on-year. The primary drag was the China business, where sales and EBITDA dropped 11% and 42% year-on-year, respectively, mainly due to increased promotional activities and significant deleveraging effects. JPMorgan maintains a "Neutral" rating on BUD APAC with a target price of HK$7.9.

In South Korea, BUD APAC's fourth-quarter 2025 sales and EBITDA declined by 1% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, but outperformed industry growth. A one-time tax dispute with the South Korean government resulted in a $49 million drag on group profits.

On a positive note, BUD APAC's China business has seen an improvement in volume momentum since the fourth quarter of 2025 and aims to "reignite growth" in the 2026 fiscal year by increasing investment in at-home consumption distribution capabilities. The firm forecasts that the group's sales and EBITDA will grow by 3.4% and 5.4% year-on-year in 2026.

BUD APAC has announced a dividend distribution of $750 million for the 2025 fiscal year, representing a payout ratio of 150% and a dividend yield of 5.7%. The company will review its dividend policy after the new CFO takes office in April. JPMorgan believes BUD APAC is likely to maintain its current policy of sustaining or increasing dividends per share annually. This implies a projected 2026 dividend yield of 5.7%, based on a forward 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times.