The alcohol industry's adjustment phase continues to deepen, a trend starkly reflected in the 2025 performance forecasts of major producers. Declining performance and losses have become common themes. As the chill of the adjustment cycle persists, some companies are attempting to innovate their way out of the predicament, while others are opting for strategic contraction and path adjustment to reserve space for the next recovery cycle. Analyzing the performance forecasts of listed alcohol companies may provide a clearer picture of how this industry shake-up will progress.

The pressure of adjustment is becoming more pronounced. According to incomplete statistics, as of February 4th, 17 alcohol-related companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, covering 9 baijiu producers, 3 beer brewers, 4 wine companies, and 1 alcohol distribution firm. Overall, growth examples among these 17 companies are scarce. Only two companies reported both profitability and growth, both of which are beer brewers. Yanjing Beer expects its 2025 net profit to be between 1.584 billion yuan and 1.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65%. Chongqing Brewery reported a total profit of approximately 3.24 billion yuan, an increase of 11.03% compared to the previous year. In contrast, another beer producer, ST Lanhuang (Lanzhou Huanghe), is expected to report a loss between 62 million yuan and 90 million yuan, although this represents a narrowing of losses by 9.8% to 37.9%.

Among the 9 listed baijiu companies that have disclosed forecasts, 5 remained profitable but saw declines in net profit attributable to shareholders. Tianyoude Wine experienced the sharpest drop, with an expected net profit of 4.2135 million yuan to 6.3202 million yuan, a decrease of 85% to 90%. Other baijiu producers generally saw profit declines exceeding 50%. Some baijiu companies even suffered a shift from profit to loss. Jiuguijiu expects a full-year net loss of 33 million yuan to 44 million yuan, its first loss in nearly a decade, representing a staggering decline of 364% to 492%. Shunxin Agriculture shifted from a profit of 231 million yuan last year to an expected net loss of 116 million yuan to 188 million yuan for 2025, a drop of over 150%.

Companies already in a loss-making position unsurprisingly failed to turn a profit in 2025, though some saw a slight reduction in their losses. Jinzhongzi Wine expects a net loss of 150 million yuan to 190 million yuan, an improvement compared to its 258 million yuan loss in 2024. However, *ST Yanshi not only saw its losses widen but also faces a delisting crisis. The company expects a net loss of 180 million yuan to 250 million yuan, with revenue below 60 million yuan.

The wine sector also showed overall sluggishness. Changyu expects its 2025 net profit to be between 55 million yuan and 75 million yuan, a decrease of 75.43% to 81.98%. Weilong shares shifted from profit to a loss, with an expected net loss ranging from 66.11 million yuan to 40.92 million yuan. Mogao shares expects a 2025 loss of 100 million yuan to 120 million yuan, while ST Tongpu's losses are also expected to be higher than in 2024. The alcohol distributor Huazhi Wine Shop is also in a loss-making position, expecting a 2025 net loss of 320 million yuan to 433 million yuan, a significant downturn from a profit of 44.45 million yuan the previous year.

A deeper analysis of the reasons cited for performance changes reveals that 13 of the 17 companies used phrases like "the industry is in a deep adjustment period" or "the market remains sluggish." Whether it's Yanghe's mention of "the baijiu industry being in a deep adjustment period with intensified competition in a存量 market," Kouzijiao's emphasis on "intensified market differentiation and channel transformation, coupled with declining demand and policy changes," or references to a "sluggish alcohol market" from Huazhi Wine Shop and Weilong shares, the core fact remains the same: consumer demand continues to decline, and the path to growth for the alcohol industry still needs exploration.

Against this backdrop, inventory has become a heavy burden for alcohol producers, especially baijiu makers. Yanghe pointed out challenges with "increased channel inventory" in 2025. Shuijingfang noted that "overall industry inventory remains high." *ST Yanshi stated that "distributor relationships have been impaired, leading to a more cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards restocking and inventory preparation." Data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association shows that total baijiu industry inventory exceeded 3 trillion yuan in 2025, with average inventory turnover days reaching 900, a 10% year-on-year increase. This situation is quite similar in the wine industry.

In this climate, mid-to-high-end products have borne the initial brunt of the downturn. Apart from beer companies, the performance forecasts of baijiu, wine, and distribution firms frequently mention phrases like "mid-to-high-end products under pressure" and "declining wholesale prices." Kouzijiao acknowledged that sales of its profit-driving high-end aged baijiu declined significantly, leading to reduced revenue. Jiuguijiu stated that its high-end and sub-high-end products faced considerable pressure. Changyu also pointed to a sharp decline in mid-to-high-end product sales weakening profitability. Distributor Huazhi Wine Shop noted that prices for its main premium wines showed a downward trend, leading to a revenue decline and continued gross margin compression.

Data from the first half and first three quarters of 2025 had already signaled this trend. In contrast, beer's mid-to-high-end products have shown relatively more resilience. As the most profitable and fastest-growing company among the 17, Yanjing Beer specifically highlighted in its forecast the role of "promoting brand rejuvenation, fashionability, and premiumization" and the impact of its core sub-high-end product "Yanjing U8 maintaining steady growth." This was reflected in its H1 2025 financial report, which showed mid-to-high-end product revenue growth of 9.32%, compared to only 1.56% for ordinary products. Even the loss-making Lanzhou Huanghe performed well in premiumization, achieving significant growth of 87.32% for its mid-to-high-end products in H1 2025 despite an overall revenue decline.

Beer marketing expert Fang Gang pointed out that after declining from its 2013 peak, the beer industry has entered a relatively stable development phase. As a fast-moving consumer good, beer lacks the collectible or investment attributes of baijiu or red wine, leading to quick turnover and minimal inventory pressure, resulting in smaller industry bubbles and stable, slightly upward overall performance. In comparison, baijiu possesses certain financial attributes, and wine consumption scenarios are more complex, making them more susceptible to industry cycle fluctuations.

Faced with the industry trough, alcohol producers are not remaining passive. Instead, they are taking proactive measures, attempting to navigate out of the difficult situation through inventory control, product innovation, and channel restructuring—aspects also reflected in the 2025 performance forecasts.

Inventory control is the first step many have taken. Yanghe stated that in response to severe market conditions, its 2025 marketing efforts focused on destocking, price stabilization, and momentum building, implementing quota controls on main products. Shuijingfang also mentioned "moderately controlling shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, ensuring channel financial security," along with implementing shipment halts and optimizing promotional policies. Jiuguijiu reported that its investments have effectively helped channel inventory return to healthy levels.

Simultaneously, some producers are focusing on product innovation to stimulate market demand. For instance, Shuijingfang specifically highlighted continued investment in "brand building, terminal expansion, product innovation, and organizational capability" in 2025. Niulanshan conducted work around "product rejuvenation," launching new products like "Golden Label Niulanshan Light Taste Baijiu" to respond to market changes and enhancing brand exposure through diversified content marketing.

Beyond controlling old inventory and launching new products, more companies are focusing on adjustments at the channel level. Jiuguijiu is advancing initiatives like the "Mine-Clearing Operation" and grid management, expanding into new retail, corporate group purchases, chain key accounts, and international business. It is also conducting themed marketing and offline tasting events for occasions like school admission banquets, weddings, and sports events to strengthen consumer cultivation and scenario penetration. Lanzhou Huanghe is attempting to break through regional limitations by "actively expanding markets beyond the Northwest region, increasing brand promotion investment, and enhancing online promotion on e-commerce platforms." Chongqing Brewery is "actively expanding non-on-premise channels" and "increasing market investment to consolidate and expand market share."

While the direction of the cycle may be difficult to reverse, the initiative for adjustment remains in the hands of the alcohol producers. From reducing shipments and controlling inventory to stabilize prices, to product rejuvenation and channel restructuring, the 2025 alcohol market, though chilly, is not lacking in attempts to break the deadlock.

Alcohol marketing expert Xiao Zhuqing stated that companies capable of weathering cycles share four common traits: decision-making flexibility, stability of talent梯队, a responsible corporate culture, and adherence to "four respects"—respect for the environment, respect for规律, respect for clients, and respect for consumers. He believes that the downturn in China's alcohol pricing is far from over, and more industry operators will exit over the next 3-5 years. The real way out for alcohol producers lies in shifting from "channel inventory pushing" to "consumer operation," building an ecosystem where employees, clients, media, and the government mutually benefit, rather than simply focusing on destocking.