Abstract

American International Group Inc will release its quarterly results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s actuals, the company’s forecast for the current quarter, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, American International Group Inc is projected to deliver revenue of 6.91 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.72%, with estimated EBIT of 1.57 billion, up 46.52% year over year, and estimated EPS of 1.90, up 54.53% year over year. Consensus and company-level forecasts suggest continued improvement in operating profitability; explicit guidance for gross profit margin and net profit margin has not been provided, but the mix shift toward underwriting profitability supports a firmer margin outlook. The core insurance and investment businesses are expected to remain stable, with premiums and investment income underpinning revenue growth and underwriting efficiency driving EBIT expansion. The general insurance segment appears to carry the largest upside potential in the near term, as underwriting gains and a lower catastrophe load remain supportive.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, American International Group Inc reported revenue of 6.35 billion, a gross profit margin of 33.87%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 519.00 million, a net profit margin of 8.09%, and adjusted EPS of 2.20, with adjusted EPS increasing 78.86% year over year. A notable highlight was the step-up in EBIT to 1.72 billion, outperforming internal estimates and reflecting disciplined underwriting and expense control. Main business performance showed premiums of 6.07 billion and net investment income of 0.77 billion, while realized capital losses and other items reduced the reported revenue base versus premium and investment inflows.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Insurance Underwriting

The core insurance underwriting engine is positioned to sustain the margin gains evident in the prior quarter. A combined ratio trajectory that has steadily improved alongside reduced catastrophe losses should continue to lift operating profitability, with the forecasted 46.52% year-over-year increase in EBIT to 1.57 billion implying further efficiency improvements. Net premiums written stability, aided by rate adequacy in commercial lines and selective growth in target niches, supports the 4.72% revenue expansion to 6.91 billion in this quarter.

Claims trends remain a central lever for earnings variability. Lower catastrophe frequency and severity compared with challenging prior-year periods have amplified underwriting results, and the absence of outsized reserve additions has also been constructive for margin durability. However, any late-quarter weather events or adverse development could pressure net profit margin versus the prior quarter’s 8.09%, so investors will scrutinize loss picks and reserve releases to gauge repeatability of the recent margin profile.

Expense discipline and portfolio actions should continue to influence the run-rate. Reinsurance program structure changes last year modestly reduced net premiums but enhanced tail risk protection, which can temper catastrophe volatility. If the quarter confirms stable attritional loss ratios and controlled expenses, the projected adjusted EPS of 1.90, up 54.53% year over year, looks attainable within a range consistent with modest top-line growth and positive underwriting leverage.

Most Promising Segment: General Insurance Profitability

The general insurance segment appears poised to be the most meaningful contributor to incremental earnings this quarter. Last quarter’s underwriting momentum was reinforced by lower catastrophe-related charges and favorable prior-year development, setting a stronger baseline for the forecast period. While the last quarter’s reported revenue totaled 6.35 billion, the business mix beneath that headline was driven by 6.07 billion of premium inflows and 0.77 billion of net investment income, which together underscore the earnings power when underwriting efficiency aligns with steady investment yields.

In the current quarter, the forecasted 1.57 billion in EBIT implicitly assumes sustained combined ratio improvements. The profitability uplift appears to be more a function of loss-ratio management than rate-led premium expansion, given the modest 4.72% revenue growth expectation. If catastrophe experience remains benign, the segment can preserve or extend margin gains. Management’s focus on portfolio quality—selectively ceding peak risk while defending margins on renewal business—suggests a continued bias toward underwriting outcomes over simple volume growth, supporting higher-quality earnings and more resilient net profit conversion.

Key Stock Drivers: Margin Trajectory, Investment Income, and Capital Use

Margin trajectory is the primary factor likely to influence the stock in the upcoming print. The last quarter’s gross profit margin of 33.87% and net profit margin of 8.09% provided a benchmark; the market will look for evidence that underwriting improvements are structural. Any commentary or disclosures around combined ratio ex-catastrophe, frequency/severity trends, and reserve movements could recalibrate expectations for full-year profitability and the sustainability of the EPS ramp.

Net investment income remains an important secondary lever. With the last quarter showing 0.77 billion in net investment income, a stable rate backdrop and higher reinvestment yields can support earnings in line with the EPS estimate of 1.90. However, volatility from realized capital gains or losses—last quarter included a 0.49 billion realized capital loss—can introduce noise to reported results. A more neutral realized gains/losses outcome would improve comparability and help investors focus on core underwriting and recurring investment income.

Capital management is a tertiary yet visible catalyst. Stronger earnings power can enable share repurchases and stable dividends without compromising regulatory capital. Commentary on capital deployment—especially if accompanied by updated return targets—often influences valuation multiples. If this quarter confirms durable operating improvement, incremental buyback activity could reinforce the EPS bridge even as top-line expansion remains moderate, supporting a steadier total shareholder return path.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary has skewed constructive, with the majority of views leaning bullish on the earnings setup and medium-term margin improvement. One noted perspective maintained a Buy rating with a price target of 91.00, reflecting confidence in underwriting discipline and earnings compounding through improved ROE and capital efficiency. Additional coverage has highlighted the 77.00% year-over-year increase in prior-quarter adjusted EPS and a combined ratio improvement to the mid-80s as validation of operational progress that could carry into the current quarter’s forecast.

The bullish stance rests on three pillars. First, underwriting trends appear favorable, aided by lower catastrophe incidence and sustained pricing adequacy, which supports the forecasted EBIT growth of 46.52% to 1.57 billion and the projected adjusted EPS of 1.90, up 54.53% year over year. Second, net investment income remains healthy on a reinvestment tailwind, providing a steady underpinning to earnings even if premium growth stays measured. Third, the balance sheet and capital deployment potential offer valuation support, as consistent buybacks and a clear return framework can enhance per-share metrics through the cycle. On balance, the constructive majority expects American International Group Inc to deliver results aligned with or marginally ahead of the revenue estimate of 6.91 billion and to reiterate a path toward improved profitability metrics in 2026.