Midterm Elections Spark Market Shift as Bank of America Favors Small and Mid-Cap Stocks

Stock News
Feb 06

Bank of America's strategists have indicated that with the U.S. midterm elections approaching and the appeal of major technology companies fading, small and mid-cap stocks are emerging as the most attractive investment option. The team, led by Michael Hartnett, highlighted that aggressive intervention policies by former President Donald Trump aimed at lowering prices in energy, healthcare, credit, housing, and electricity are putting pressure on sectors such as energy giants, pharmaceutical firms, banks, and large-cap technology. This has positioned small and mid-cap stocks as the primary beneficiaries of an anticipated market surge in the run-up to the midterm elections. In their report, the strategists stated, "Before Trump's approval ratings rebound due to a policy shift toward livelihood issues, we will take long positions in real economy sectors and short Wall Street's financial sector." Recently, due to concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence technology, investors have been accelerating their exit from technology stocks and seeking investments that could benefit from the Trump administration's efforts to reduce living costs. At the same time, companies that are more sensitive to improved economic growth prospects have generally outperformed the broader market. This week, the Nasdaq 100 Index recorded its largest three-day decline since April, falling 4.6%. Additionally, year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index has underperformed its equal-weighted counterpart by 4.2 percentage points. Bank of America noted that corporate business models are shifting from "asset-light" to "asset-heavy," a transition that poses a significant threat to the market dominance of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. The team pointed out that large-cap tech companies' AI-related capital expenditures are projected to reach approximately $670 billion this year, accounting for 96% of their cash flow, compared to just 40% in 2023. They added, "The balance sheet advantages of these companies have diminished, and the era of massive stock buybacks has come to an end." It is worth noting that Hartnett has been bullish on international stocks since late 2024, a view that has proven highly prescient, as U.S. equities have since consistently underperformed global markets.

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