Abstract

Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd. will report quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Post Market, with current estimates pointing to revenue of $689.83 million, EBIT of $124.11 million, and EPS of $1.07, implying year-over-year growth of 15.05%, 181.36%, and 596.67%.

Market Forecast

The latest estimates for Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd. suggest total revenue of $689.83 million for the current quarter, with expected year-over-year growth of 15.05%. The forecast also calls for EBIT of $124.11 million and EPS of $1.07, implying year-over-year gains of 181.36% and 596.67%, respectively. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not disclosed.

The main business remains concentrated in net premiums, supported by solid profitability in the prior quarter and an expanding earnings base indicated by the steep year-over-year EPS acceleration. The most promising segment by earnings leverage appears to be net investment income at $45.90 million, with the company’s total revenue expected to grow 15.05% year-over-year; net premiums accounted for $599.80 million last quarter and continue to anchor the topline.

Last Quarter Review

Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd. delivered revenue of $504.20 million last quarter, with a gross profit margin of 31.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $130.00 million, a net profit margin of 20.02%, and adjusted EPS of $1.21, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 31.52%.

Quarter-on-quarter profitability surged, with net profit attributable to the parent company rising by 562.44%, underscoring strong operating leverage and improved earnings efficiency versus the preceding period. Within the revenue mix, net premiums contributed $599.80 million (92.01% of revenue), net investment income provided $45.90 million (7.04%), and net investment gains/losses amounted to $6.20 million (0.95%), while total revenue grew 7.76% year-over-year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Net Premiums and Underwriting Performance

Net premiums remain the core driver of Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd.’s revenue base and cash generation. Last quarter’s net premiums reached $599.80 million and accounted for 92.01% of total revenue, reflecting the company’s concentration in its primary underwriting activities and demonstrating robust scale. With revenue for the current quarter estimated at $689.83 million, net premiums are expected to underpin the topline trajectory even as the mix may show periodic fluctuations due to seasonality and policy renewals. The prior quarter’s 31.42% gross profit margin and 20.02% net profit margin indicate disciplined underwriting and favorable expense control; while explicit margin forecasts are not provided, the expected uplift in EBIT to $124.11 million suggests continuation of earnings momentum as underwriting results flow through to operating profit. The sequential earnings acceleration is also consistent with last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit jump of 562.44%, which signals heightened earnings power from the existing book, provided loss experience remains stable and the realized rate environment supports sustainable margins.

Net Investment Income and Earnings Leverage

Net investment income of $45.90 million last quarter contributed a meaningful portion of operating profits and, critically, exhibits outsized leverage on EPS when operating performance is stable. The current quarter’s EBIT estimate of $124.11 million, coupled with year-over-year growth of 181.36%, points to substantial operating income expansion relative to the year-ago period; this expansion, combined with revenue growth of 15.05%, is consistent with higher earnings efficiency and more favorable contributions from investment portfolios. The projected EPS of $1.07, with forecast year-over-year growth of 596.67%, suggests a powerful base effect against the prior-year comparable quarter and highlights the sensitivity of per-share results to operating and investment returns. Given last quarter’s actual EPS of $1.21 and EBIT of $171.40 million, the current quarter’s EPS outlook reflects moderation from the sequential high while maintaining strong year-over-year elevation, which can improve capital allocation flexibility and enhance per-share value if realized.

Near-Term Stock Price Drivers

The most immediate drivers of Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd.’s stock price this quarter are the magnitude of any EPS surprise relative to the $1.07 estimate, the revenue trajectory versus the $689.83 million projection, and the degree of operating leverage captured in EBIT versus the $124.11 million forecast. A realized revenue outturn at or above estimates would signal continued strength in net premiums and stability in policy retention and pricing, while an EBIT delivery consistent with the 181.36% year-over-year forecast growth would validate constructive operating trends implied by last quarter’s profitability metrics. Conversely, results that show meaningful variance from EPS projections—positive or negative—will recalibrate near-term expectations, with upside surprise potential heightened by the steep year-over-year EPS change implied by the base effect. In the context of last quarter’s 31.42% gross margin and 20.02% net margin, investors will watch how operating efficiency translates under current market conditions, as even modest deviations in expense ratio or claims experience can have amplified impact on per-share earnings given the projected earnings leverage embedded in the estimates.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing institutional stance leans cautious to bearish, with notable firms signaling restraint ahead of the print. JPMorgan downgraded Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd. to Underweight, adjusting its price target to $21, reflecting a view that the risk-reward is less favorable at recent valuations and that investors should temper near-term expectations in light of potential variability in quarterly outcomes. Barclays maintained a Hold rating with a price target of $19, reinforcing a cautious posture and implying limited upside until greater visibility is achieved on earnings cadence and sustainability of operating metrics. These views coalesce around a measured outlook that prioritizes proof in the next set of results; the emphasis is on whether Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd. can meet or exceed the projected revenue of $689.83 million, deliver EBIT around $124.11 million, and print EPS near $1.07 while retaining the profitability quality signaled by last quarter’s 31.42% gross margin and 20.02% net margin. The cautious majority expects near-term performance to be the key validation point, arguing that a clear beat and stable forward indicators would be required to shift sentiment materially; in the absence of that, they anticipate a more range-bound reaction predicated on the company’s ability to maintain earnings leverage without deterioration in core metrics. The underlying message from these institutions is that while the high year-over-year EPS growth forecast (596.67%) offers upside optionality, the market will weigh the durability and repeatability of such growth more heavily than the single-quarter print, making delivery against revenue and EBIT benchmarks the critical determinant for reevaluating stance in subsequent periods.