CLSA Advises Increasing Portfolio Weightings for China, Australia, Singapore, and Malaysia, While Reducing Exposure to South Korea

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Yesterday

CLSA has issued a research report recommending a more cautious portfolio allocation strategy until the outlook for oil and gas supply normalization in the Persian Gulf becomes clearer. The firm has revised its recommendation for China to an overweight position of 5% relative to the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan benchmark. For Australia and Singapore, allocations have been raised from an underweight of 10% and a neutral stance, respectively, to an overweight of 10% each against the same benchmark. Malaysia's allocation has been increased from an underweight of 20% to a neutral position. Concurrently, CLSA has further reduced its weighting for South Korea, moving from an overweight of 15% to a neutral stance relative to the benchmark. The report suggests that the United States recognizes rising oil prices as a consequence of its attack on Iran. During early Asian trading yesterday (9th), NYMEX crude oil futures briefly touched $119 per barrel, a price level that translates to an average U.S. gasoline price of approximately $4.7 per gallon, with some states potentially seeing prices exceed the psychological threshold of $5 per gallon. CLSA argues that such oil prices could amount to political self-harm, severe enough to compel U.S. President Trump to retreat. The report also indicates that Iran's demonstrated resolve may have exceeded the expectations of U.S. policymakers. Iran might be betting that an oil price crisis, potentially triggering an economic recession and the risk of depleting interceptor missiles, could force Trump to abandon military engagement.

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