美伊双方于周二晚间宣布的停火协议，令投资者略微上调了对美联储年底前降息概率的预期。然而这种市场反应忽略了一个关键点：冲突终结对美联储风险权衡的影响具有显著不对称性。
此前，地缘冲突扩大可能拖累经济增长、甚至引发经济衰退的风险，曾是支持重启降息周期最有力的论据。具有悖论意味的是，战事平息反而可能在短期内加大而非降低美联储推行宽松政策的难度。
其内在逻辑在于：停火协议消除最恶劣经济情景——即供应链断裂导致需求崩溃——的同时，并未同步消除新通胀压力产生的风险。冲突期间攀升的能源与商品价格不会完全回落，停火乐观情绪正在推动金融条件趋于宽松，而劳动力市场表现依然稳健，足以让美联储不必急于实施救助。
若将严重需求破坏的风险从天平上移除，剩下的便是尚未彻底解决的通胀难题。这一问题在近期能源价格上涨前便已存在，如今可能再度抬头——尽管若停火态势持续，其影响程度或较此前温和。
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