Abstract

AppLovin Corporation will report its fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026, Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations, last quarter’s performance, and the outlook for key growth drivers and risks across software platform and apps.

Market Forecast

Based on available forecasts, AppLovin Corporation’s current quarter outlook points to revenue of $1.60 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 26.50%, with estimated EPS of $2.93, and estimated EBIT of $1.24 billion; the company’s margin profile is expected to remain robust, though detailed gross margin and net margin guidance was not disclosed. The main business continues to be the Software Platform, which is projected to carry growth momentum on the back of advertiser demand and product upgrades, while the most promising segment remains the Software Platform given its scale and operating leverage.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, AppLovin Corporation reported revenue of $1.41 billion, gross profit margin of 87.56%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.84 billion, a net profit margin of 59.47%, and adjusted EPS of $2.45, with revenue up 17.26% year over year. A key highlight was operating efficiency, as EBIT reached $1.08 billion, surpassing prior estimates and underpinning strong profitability. Main business highlights: the Software Platform generated $1.16 billion and Applications generated $0.33 billion, with the Software Platform contributing the majority of revenue and growth; segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Software Platform

The Software Platform remains the core revenue and profit engine this quarter, benefiting from broad-based advertiser activity, machine-learning optimization on the app discovery and bidding stack, and improved take rates in performance marketing. With an estimated company-level revenue of $1.60 billion and the historical mix at approximately 78.10% from the Software Platform, the segment is positioned to deliver substantial dollar growth and margin contribution. Product enhancements typically translate into higher effective CPMs and better ROI for clients, allowing the platform to defend pricing even as volumes fluctuate. Integration of new automation features could further reduce traffic acquisition costs while expanding match rates, supporting both top-line expansion and sustained gross margin.

Applications

The Applications business continues to provide stable cash generation, though its growth rate is structurally slower than the Software Platform segment. The segment’s strategic role is to serve as both a monetization test bed and a complementary audience funnel, creating data advantages that can feed model training for the platform. While competition across casual and hyper-casual titles can pressure engagement, tighter portfolio curation and live-ops enhancements can stabilize ARPDAU, improving predictability of segment earnings. Management’s recent focus on efficiency should limit marketing spend volatility in the unit, preserving its contribution margin and reducing earnings cyclicality tied to new title launches.

What Will Likely Drive the Stock This Quarter

The key stock driver is whether AppLovin Corporation can translate high-teens to mid-twenties revenue growth into incremental margin gains, particularly through Software Platform operating leverage. Investors will be watching the trajectory of advertiser budgets in gaming and non-gaming performance categories, as well as conversion performance under privacy-constrained environments. Any update on product-level innovations in targeting, bidding, and measurement could influence sentiment on durability of growth through 2026. A beat on EPS, underpinned by EBIT efficiency and disciplined opex, would likely be taken favorably, while any step-down in gross margin or weaker-than-expected expansion in the Software Platform could weigh on the shares.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional commentary remains constructive, with a predominantly bullish tilt centered on upside from the Software Platform and sustained margin strength. Analysts highlight that expanding advertiser cohorts and continual model improvements provide visibility into revenue acceleration and margin durability, leading to positive estimate revisions. Commentary also notes that last quarter’s outperformance on EBIT and EPS creates a higher bar, but the improved operating leverage and stable Applications cash flow offer a cushion against near-term volatility. Overall, the prevailing view expects AppLovin Corporation to deliver results at or above the high end of guidance, contingent on continued momentum in the Software Platform.