On Wednesday, the US government shutdown entered its 36th day, matching the record set during the 2018-2019 shutdown. Bank of America (BofA) suggests that the political fallout from the disruption of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—a widely relied-upon benefit—could serve as a critical "forcing mechanism" to push both parties toward a compromise to end the current impasse.

According to trading desk sources, BofA noted in a research report on the 4th that SNAP benefits (commonly known as food stamps), originally scheduled for November distribution, have been delayed due to the shutdown. The US government announced on Monday that it would tap emergency funds to disburse approximately $4.65 billion, but this covers only part of the program’s average monthly expenditure of $8 billion. More critically, the government warned of "significant delays" in payments.

Analysts believe that while the direct economic impact on markets exists, it may be limited. Payment delays are expected to drag November consumer spending by about 0.5 percentage points but are unlikely to "derail the business cycle," as funds are expected to be retroactively paid once the government reopens.

However, the political ramifications far outweigh the economic shock. With roughly 12% of the US population relying on SNAP benefits, payment disruptions or severe delays would directly affect a vast voter base. BofA argues that the resulting political costs could accelerate bipartisan negotiations to prevent further escalation.

**SNAP Disruption: Limited but Notable Economic Impact** Some Republican lawmakers have expressed optimism about reaching a deal. Media reports indicate that certain GOP members predict the deadlock could end this week. Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma stated he was "very confident" in a deal this week, adding, "I think we could wrap up by Wednesday night… but more likely Thursday."

BofA’s analysis suggests SNAP payment delays will noticeably dampen short-term consumption. SNAP benefits account for 0.5% of total US consumer spending, with recipients primarily being low-income households that have a high marginal propensity to consume, typically spending funds quickly on essentials.

Thus, analysts estimate payment delays could reduce November consumer spending by up to 0.5 percentage points. While they describe this as "significant," it is unlikely to trigger a broader recession. The report emphasizes that SNAP-driven consumption weakness is likely temporary, as retroactive payments post-reopening would likely offset November’s slump with stronger future growth.

**The Real Game-Changer: Political Fallout Affecting 12% of the Population** Compared to the relatively contained economic impact, BofA’s report highlights that the political consequences of SNAP disruptions are "far greater," given the sheer scale of affected individuals, creating unignorable pressure.

The report stresses that about 12% of Americans depend on SNAP benefits for basic sustenance. When tens of millions of voters face delayed food assistance, the resulting social and political pressure becomes untenable for both parties. Such direct, widespread民生 impact carries more political weight than abstract macroeconomic data.

Even with partial emergency payments, the "drop-in-the-bucket" remedy and delays still pose substantial "political costs." Analysts argue this cost is the most likely driver for bipartisan action to avoid worse fallout.

**Other Potential Catalysts: Healthcare and Thanksgiving Travel** Beyond SNAP, the report identifies two other near-term factors that could force an end to the shutdown.

First is the impending expiration of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies by year-end. According to KFF data, if these subsidies aren’t extended, average health insurance premiums could more than double by 2026. With the 2026 enrollment window already open, consumers are feeling the pressure of potential premium spikes—a politically sensitive issue.

Second is air travel chaos. Reports indicate rising flight delays and ground stops as unpaid air traffic controllers call in sick. With Thanksgiving travel peaks approaching, this could escalate into a major political crisis. However, a wildcard exists: Congress might pass a stopgap bill to pay only "essential personnel." While this would ease travel disruptions, it could remove a pressure point for broader compromise, potentially prolonging the shutdown.