CITIC Securities has released a research report stating that while humanoid robots are currently in a technology verification phase, their path to commercial adoption is expected to be shorter compared to that of new energy vehicles. The report recommends focusing on the segments within the robotics industry that offer the highest value, the clearest competitive landscape, and the greatest certainty, as these areas are poised for the most significant earnings elasticity. CITIC SEC believes that industry leaders are the most crucial factor during the industry trend investment stage, and therefore suggests actively seeking out leading companies in specific robotics segments that possess high barriers in non-standardization, technology, cost, and production capacity expansion, as such enterprises are better equipped to navigate industry cycles. Overall, CITIC Securities identifies several high-value, high-barrier segments in the humanoid robotics industry, including the robotics companies themselves (integrated hardware-software platform players), high-performance SoC chips (driving the brain/edge computing), dexterous hands (small robots integrating hardware and software), actuators, and precision sensors (hardware-software integration). The main viewpoints of CITIC Securities are as follows: Robotics and new energy vehicles are highly comparable, yet they differ in dimensions such as technology and application scenarios. Both the new energy vehicle and robotics industries are globally strategic sectors. The report draws strong parallels between the two, noting that both were propelled into mass-production technology waves by Tesla and follow a similar industrial logic: technology verification, followed by capital infusion, policy drivers, and a market evolution from B2B to B2C, with highly similar supply chain and capital/policy driving models. However, robotics involves higher complexity in intelligence and more fragmented application scenarios, introducing greater uncertainty into the industry's development. Policy promotion, technological innovation, and leadership by key industry players are identified as the three core factors that influenced the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Regarding policy, subsidies for new energy vehicles initially targeted buses and commercial vehicles, as subsidizing operational vehicles is more effective in terms of cost, technology adoption, and policy impact, thereby fostering industrial chain development before eventually promoting passenger vehicle growth. From this perspective, the report suggests that policy promotion for robotics should also follow a "plan before market" approach. In terms of technological innovation, humanoid robots are currently in the technology verification stage, on the cusp of commercialization. Tesla took 5 years from its founding in 2003 to the mass production and delivery of its first electric car, the Roadster, in 2008, with the core goal being technology verification. It then took nearly 10 years until the official delivery of its first mainstream commercial model, the Model S, in 2012. Similarly, Tesla has spent about 5 years since first introducing the Tesla Bot concept in 2021, with mass production anticipated in Q1 2026, and is also currently in a technology verification phase. However, considering that Tesla started with a capital base of only a few hundred million dollars and limited talent and technological resources, whereas it now operates with capital expenditures in the tens of billions of dollars and possesses substantial accumulated resources, CITIC SEC believes the timeline from technology verification to simple small-scale commercialization, and then to complex large-scale commercialization for humanoid robots, will be shorter compared to Tesla's experience with new energy vehicles. Regarding leadership by key players, Tesla is seen as most comprehensively representing the progress of embodied intelligence technology and industry in robotics, but currently, multiple players are conducting technology verification simultaneously, indicating that the industry's commercialization inflection point is approaching. The new energy vehicle sector experienced four major market phases under the combined influence of macro, policy, technological, and key player factors. Reviewing the development stages of China's new energy vehicle industry reveals an evolution in driving forces: starting with "policy-driven" alone, transitioning to "policy + market" dual drivers, and finally maturing into a stage led purely by technology and demand. Market trends also evolved from being dominated by conceptual themes to being led by heavyweight industry leaders. Globally, new energy vehicle industry investment went through four main phases, each resonating with the global macro environment, new energy policy cycles, technology cycles, and leadership from key players. In China's A-share market for new energy vehicles, driven by policy, technological innovation, and key players, four distinct phases occurred between 2009 and 2022. These progressed from the first phase: thematic trading (Jan 2009 - Nov 2010), to the second phase: thematic trading (Dec 2012 - Aug 2014), then the third phase: theme + earnings-driven (Jul 2015 - Jun 2016), and finally the fourth phase: industry trend + earnings realization (Nov 2019 - Oct 2021). Between 2010 and 2018, although new energy vehicle sales grew consistently, the market experienced significant volatility, fundamentally because the industry had not crossed the critical threshold integrating "policy—technology—profitability." The core reasons were early reliance on policy and technology, coupled with fragile profitability among related companies and low penetration rates, leading to theme-driven speculative surges often followed by sharp declines. After 2019, the industry reached an inflection point where "policy—technology—market—profitability" resonated, propelling it into a growth stage driven by fundamentals, which initiated a sustainable long-term uptrend. The closer the market was to this industry inflection point, the more leading stocks and industry heavyweights outperformed. Currently, humanoid robotics is in the technology verification phase, which still constitutes thematic investing. The segments with the highest value, clearest competitive landscape, and greatest certainty offer the most significant earnings elasticity. By analyzing the market phases of the new energy vehicle industry and the historical performance of companies, it is evident that cyclical materials experienced huge earnings volatility, whereas companies with high barriers in non-standardization, technology, cost, and capacity expansion demonstrated an ability to weather cycles. Therefore, the report recommends actively seeking out such companies within specific robotics segments. The humanoid robotics supply chain primarily consists of suppliers from the automotive parts, machinery, and electronics sectors, with relatively fewer materials suppliers currently involved. Their positioning is more analogous to整车厂 (vehicle manufacturers), motor controllers, smart cockpits, thermal management, and components in the new energy vehicle industry. Their earnings are expected to grow steadily in line with robotics shipment volumes, making them less likely to experience the extreme volatility seen in upstream cyclical materials within the new energy vehicle sector. CITIC SEC estimates that while rotary + linear actuators combined account for over 30% of humanoid robot costs—similar to batteries in new energy vehicles—and adding dexterous hand actuators pushes this share above 45%, the industry is still in its infancy (from 0 to 1) with technology paths yet to converge. Consequently, there is currently no dominant player analogous to CATL's position in the lithium battery industry. Overall, the report reiterates that robotics companies (integrated platforms), high-performance SoC chips, dexterous hands, actuators, and precision sensors represent the high-value, high-barrier segments. ▍Risk factors include slower-than-expected progress in robotics technology; lower-than-anticipated potential for application scenario development; risks associated with changes in technological pathways; policy implementation falling short of expectations; intensifying industry competition; unexpected changes in laws and regulations; and international geopolitical risks. Regarding investment strategy, robotics, especially humanoid robotics, is a globally strategic industry with a massive market potential, primarily aimed at addressing labor shortages, rising labor costs, manufacturing upgrades, and population aging. It represents a new economic driver and a technological high ground, serving both societal and defense needs. Consequently, countries and regions including China, the US, the EU, and Japan have implemented various policy tools to promote their domestic robotics industries. The report advises focusing on the segments within the robotics industry that offer the highest value, the clearest competitive landscape, and the greatest certainty. It concludes that industry leaders are paramount during the industry trend investment phase and recommends actively identifying leading companies in robotics sub-sectors with high barriers related to non-standardization, technology, cost, and capacity expansion, as these firms possess the resilience to endure industry cycles.