North America's leading cloud computing providers recently released their Q3 2025 results, with the top four—Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, and Meta—collectively reporting capital expenditures (including financing leases) of $113.318 billion, up 75% year-over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter. These companies have raised their full-year guidance and remain optimistic about AI investments in 2026, underscoring robust demand for overseas AI computing power. Further upward revisions to 2026 guidance are highly likely. Additionally, AI demand continues to exceed supply, accelerating the monetization of core businesses and driving commercial success, with search revenue surpassing market expectations. CICC's key insights are as follows:

**Overseas CSPs Further Raise Capex Guidance** Based on earnings calls, Alphabet has increased its 2025 capex forecast from $80 billion to $91–93 billion. Meta has raised its 2025 capex guidance to $70–72 billion (previously $66–72 billion). Microsoft expects higher capex growth in FY2026 than in FY2025, while Amazon has lifted its 2025 capex projection to $125 billion, anticipating further growth in 2026. The strong quarterly capex performance and upward revisions reflect sustained optimism about AI investment, confirming resilient demand for AI computing power overseas.

According to consensus estimates and company guidance, CICC projects total capex (including financing leases) for North America's top four cloud providers to reach $384.5 billion in 2025 and $499.8 billion in 2026, representing year-over-year growth of 54.8% and 30.0%, respectively. These figures represent upward revisions of 3.8% and 14.9% from August (post-Q2 earnings), with further adjustments likely for 2026.

**AI Demand Outstrips Supply, Accelerating Core Business Monetization** Earnings calls highlighted persistent AI supply shortages. Microsoft noted Azure cloud service capacity constraints, with demand exceeding current supply. Meta cited insufficient computing power for its ad recommendation system, while Alphabet reported a 46% quarterly increase in unfulfilled Google Cloud contracts to $155 billion. Amazon disclosed that its in-house Trainium2 chips are fully booked.

In the cloud segment, AI has become a key growth driver for Microsoft Azure (Q3 2025 YoY +40%), Google Cloud (YoY +34%), and Amazon AWS (YoY +20%+). On the application side, AI is enhancing core business performance: Meta’s AI-powered ad tools generate over $60 billion in annualized revenue, while Alphabet’s AI Overview has doubled search query volume in Q3, with search revenue exceeding expectations.

**Investment Recommendations** Key stocks include Zhongji Innolight (300308.SZ), Yuanjie Semiconductor (688498.SH), Broadcom (AVGO.US), Ruijie Networks (301165.SZ), Accelink Technologies (002281.SZ), Arista Networks (ANET.US), Celestica, Eoptolink Technology (300502.SZ), Shijia Photons (688313.SH), Lumentum (LITE.US), and Huagong Tech (000988.SZ).

**Risks** Potential downside risks include weaker-than-expected cloud capex, slower AI adoption, and global economic slowdown.