On September 30, 2025, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Shanghai gold, Shanghai copper, international copper, polysilicon, and apple futures rose over 1%. On the declining side, coking coal fell nearly 4%, while crude oil, coke, LU fuel oil, fuel oil, soda ash, No. 20 rubber, and rubber dropped over 2%. Rapeseed, pulp, ferrosilicon, and BR rubber declined nearly 2%.
Guangda Futures Analysis:
Tuesday saw collective weakness in the energy and chemical sector, with crude oil leading the decline as the main contract 2511 fell over 3% intraday. Overnight markets witnessed a sharp pullback in international crude oil prices, driven by the US government shutdown crisis on one hand, and the White House's announcement of a plan to end the Gaza conflict on the other, further amplifying crude oil's decline.
During the holiday period, OPEC+ will convene a meeting on October 5 to discuss a new round of crude oil production. Additionally, whether overseas macroeconomic non-farm employment data can be released as scheduled and how it might affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path deserves attention. Entering October, international crude oil demand may enter a seasonal decline phase, warranting attention to changes in crude oil fundamentals.
Multiple macroeconomic events are expected during the holidays. Three informed sources revealed that OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of crude oil production increases at the October 5 meeting, with an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, as the organization seeks to further regain market share. OPEC+ crude oil production accounts for approximately half of global output, with members including Oil Producing Countries Organization member states and non-OPEC allies such as Russia. If the meeting exceeds expectations with production increases spanning two or even three months' worth of output, this would create significant bearish pressure on crude oil prices. Conversely, oil prices would remain relatively calm.
The second macroeconomic event requiring attention is the evolution of the US government shutdown issue. Non-farm data is scheduled for release this Friday. If government issues are not properly resolved, causing delayed data release, this could bring market risk dynamics and further impact crude oil demand expectations.
From the spot market perspective, Saudi Arabia is expected to raise crude oil selling prices to Asian buyers in November. Refinery sources indicate that after significant price cuts in October, the official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude in November may increase by 20-40 cents per barrel, to $2.40-2.60 per barrel.
Overall, oil prices face complex event-driven factors during the holiday period. Investors are advised to maintain light positions when participating in the market.