U.S. stock index futures for the three major averages were lower in pre-market trading on Thursday, February 19. At the time of writing, Nasdaq futures were down 0.32%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.30%, and Dow Jones futures declined 0.39%.

Major European indices also traded lower. Germany's DAX index decreased by 0.88%, Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 0.83%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.78%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 0.83%.

In commodities, WTI crude oil rose 1.25% to $65.86 per barrel, while Brent crude increased 1.18% to $71.18 per barrel.

**Interest Rate Options Traders Defy Hawkish Fed Signals** Traders in U.S. interest rate options are establishing positions betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more rapidly and deeply than currently anticipated by the market. This positioning contrasts sharply with recent hawkish signals from some Fed officials, who have even suggested the possibility of further rate hikes. Significant buying activity has been observed in call options tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures and U.S. Treasury futures, which would profit from a market rally. However, this trend in the options market diverges from the spot market; a recent J.P. Morgan survey indicated that investors reduced their net long positions in U.S. Treasuries and adopted a more neutral stance in the week ending Tuesday.

**"Black Swan" Fund Founder Warns of Potential Market Reversal** Mark Spitznagel, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Universa Investments, a fund known for hedging against tail risks, stated that the multi-year rally in U.S. stocks is far from over—for now. He believes the market will remain in a "Goldilocks zone" over the next year—characterized by receding inflation and interest rates, an economy slowing but not excessively, and increasingly euphoric sentiment—leading to a continued climb and a potential blow-off top. Spitznagel, who has held this view since late 2022, added that as long as economic resilience persists, stocks will keep rising. However, he cautioned that the "biggest bubble in human history" is entering its final stages, and market euphoria could drive the S&P 500 to 8,000 points or higher before a sharp reversal occurs.

**Foreign Investment in US Assets Contradicts "Sell America" Narrative** Data revealed that foreign purchases of U.S. financial assets accelerated in 2025, driven by demand for stocks and U.S. Treasuries, effectively countering the frequently discussed "Sell America" narrative. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department released on Wednesday, foreign investors purchased a net $1.55 trillion in U.S. long-term financial assets in 2025, up from $1.18 trillion the previous year. This included $442.7 billion flowing into U.S. Treasury securities. Concerns that overseas investors might retreat from U.S. markets and the dollar had been fueled by former President Trump's threats to impose significant tariffs for economic, geopolitical, and national security reasons.

**Retail Investors Heavily Buying Beaten-Down Software Stocks** Following a sell-off in software stocks perceived as threatened by AI tools, Wall Street is reassessing whether they were oversold, while retail investors are actively buying the dip. According to Scott Rubner, Head of Equity and Equity Derivatives Strategy at Citadel Securities, retail traders set a record for purchases of software stocks on its platform. The sell-off affected the broader market as investors dumped shares of companies thought to be replaceable by AI, even those with minimal risk. While professional investors, including hedge funds, increased short selling at a record pace, retail investors took the opposite view. Furthermore, retail demand has broadened beyond the tech sector, with year-to-date data showing a preference for materials, real estate, financials, communication services, and industrials. This momentum has also extended beyond the cash equity market, with retail participation in options markets reaching historic highs in 2026.

**Middle East Tensions Support Gold and Silver Prices** Spot gold edged up 0.27% to $4,991.16 per ounce, while spot silver gained 1.19% to $78.10 per ounce. The price moves came amid heightened geopolitical focus. Informed sources indicated that the U.S. military is prepared to launch strikes on Iran "as early as this weekend," although the final decision rests with the President. Sources stated the White House has been informed that the military is ready to act over the weekend following a significant recent buildup of forces in the Middle East. The President has privately debated the pros and cons of military action and consulted advisors and allies on the best course; it remains unclear if a decision will be made before the weekend. The U.S. is substantially increasing its military presence in the region, with the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its strike group transiting the Atlantic toward the Strait of Gibraltar. Additionally, a large contingent of fighter jets and support aircraft has been deployed, assembling the region's largest aerial force since the 2003 Iraq War. Separately, Poland has called for its citizens currently in Iran to leave promptly and advised against travel to the country.

**Individual Stock News** **NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Previews "Unprecedented" New Chips for GTC 2026** In a media interview, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang previewed the upcoming GTC 2026 conference, explicitly stating that "the world has never seen before" new chips will be unveiled, garnering significant industry attention. The conference is scheduled for March 16-19, 2026, in San Jose, California, focusing on a new era of AI infrastructure competition. As a leader in AI chips, this major announcement is seen as a move to further solidify NVIDIA's leading position. Huang stated, "We have prepared several new chips that are global firsts. Nothing is easy because all technologies are reaching their limits." While he did not reveal specific models, he strongly hinted that the new hardware would push current physical limits to the extreme. Tech media interprets this as likely indicating a mature product based on the Rubin architecture.

**Alphabet (GOOGL) and Sea Ltd (SE) Partner on AI Tools for E-commerce and Gaming** Alphabet and Southeast Asian tech giant Sea Ltd announced a new collaboration to develop artificial intelligence (AI) tools for Sea's e-commerce and gaming products. In a joint statement, the companies said that under the newly signed strategic cooperation agreement, they will jointly explore building a shopping prototype system with AI agents on Sea's Shopee platform. This initiative represents a significant step by global tech firms to commercialize AI models, moving beyond simple Q&A functions to enable broader tasks like cross-application shopping and managing complex workflows.

**Bidding War for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) May Intensify** Traders are speculating that the battle for control of Warner Bros. Discovery could prompt one of the bidders to increase its offer. The historic Hollywood studio's shares closed just under $29 on Wednesday, a day after Paramount Skydance (PSKY) indicated it might raise its bid by at least $1 to $31 per share. Oppenheimer event-driven analyst Michael Broudo suggested that based on the wording in Paramount Skydance's press release, its previous $31-per-share offer was not "best and final," making an increase to $32 per share a "reasonable estimate."

**Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q4 Profit Tops Estimates on Midstream Strength** Occidental Petroleum reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.31 for the quarter ended December 31, surpassing expectations of $0.18. Revenue fell 5.2% year-over-year to $5.42 billion. While Q4 results were impacted by lower crude oil prices, robust performance from its midstream business helped offset the decline. The company expects 2026 capital expenditure to be between $5.5 billion and $5.9 billion, with average production forecast between 1.42 million and 1.48 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). First-quarter production is anticipated to be between 1.38 million and 1.42 million boe/d. Shares of Occidental Petroleum rose over 4% in Thursday's pre-market trading.

**Rio Tinto (RIO) Full-Year Earnings Flat, Slightly Miss Expectations** Global mining giant Rio Tinto reported its 2025 full-year results. While underlying earnings were essentially flat, they slightly missed market expectations, as weakness in the core iron ore business due to soft prices was largely offset by a strong performance from its copper operations. Underlying earnings for the year ended December 31, 2025, were $10.87 billion, unchanged from the prior year but slightly below the consensus estimate of $11.03 billion. Underlying EBITDA for the iron ore division, its largest profit contributor, fell 11% due to price declines and flat shipments. In contrast, the copper business delivered a standout performance, with copper production up 11% and average realized prices rising 17%, driving a doubling of the division's underlying EBITDA to $7.37 billion. The aluminum and lithium businesses also saw a 29% profit increase due to improved prices, though this included approximately $1 billion in total costs related to U.S. aluminum export tariffs.

**Teck Resources (TECK) Ends 2025 Strongly on Soaring Copper Prices** Canadian mining company Teck Resources delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance for 2025, driven by significantly higher copper prices and stable operations. Simultaneously, its merger plans with Anglo American continue to progress. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 increased to CAD 1.51 billion (approximately USD 1.1 billion) from CAD 835 million a year earlier, exceeding analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue grew to CAD 3.06 billion from CAD 2.79 billion year-over-year, while gross profit nearly doubled to CAD 990 million. The robust results were primarily driven by the copper business, which contributed gross profit before depreciation and amortization of CAD 1.1 billion in the quarter, significantly higher than CAD 732 million a year ago. The average copper price during the period was $5.03 per pound, ending the year at $5.67 per pound.

**Key Economic Data and Events Schedule** * 21:30 Beijing Time: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending February 14 * 21:30 Beijing Time: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February * 22:00 Beijing Time: Speech by 2026 FOMC Voter and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari